Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Buying on VIX Levels

hold for
History 5y 10y 20y All
Buckets Bands 4 6 8 10
16.91 VIX ·16.1–17.3

No fear signal

5,030 days since 2006 · 2026-10-28

9.1–12.3 Calm
12.3–13.5 Calm
13.5–14.8 Calm
14.8–16.1 Normal
16.1–17.3 Normal VIX 16.91
17.3–19 Normal
19–21.2 Elevated
21.2–24.1 Elevated
24.1–29 Stressed
29–82.7 Panic
10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%

Since 2006, days at this level gave +1.5% over 2 months (69% up) — no edge vs the +2.0% average. → Nothing to do — wait for a spike.

Buy S&P 500 while VIX is in the 16.1–17.3 band, average return over the…
next 1 month
+0.9%
median +1.6% · 70% up · -0.1pp vs avg · n=494
next 2 months
+1.5%
median +2.3% · 69% up · -0.5pp vs avg · n=489
next 3 months
+2.6%
median +3.6% · 77% up · -0.3pp vs avg · n=488
Return after a day in each VIX band, over the hold period picked above — bars are the mean, tick marks the median. Dashed: all-days average. Ringed: now.
Each day's VIX vs the return over the following weeks. Line: today. Noisy — the edge is in the right tail.
Full VIX history; shaded above 25. Dark panel = outside the 20-year window.
How to read this  ▾

The VIX is the market's 30-day volatility estimate off S&P 500 options — it rises when traders are afraid. Each day since 2006 is sorted by its VIX close; we show what S&P 500 did over the next 1–3 months, % positive, and the gap vs the all-days average.

The effect is one-sided: extreme fear (VIX 25+) has preceded strong returns; a mildly elevated VIX (20–25) has been the weakest zone. Small overlapping samples — not a forecast.

End-of-day data, refreshed nightly. Forward returns use adjusted closes over 21 / 42 / 63 trading days; overlapping windows, so samples aren't independent. Not a forecast, not investment advice.