DM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -4.5% | -2.5% | 19.3% | 38% |
| Day 2 | +1.1% | +0.2% | 7.4% | 56% |
| Day 3 | +1.3% | +0.7% | 5.5% | 50% |
| 5-day | -3.7% | -7.3% | 21.4% | 25% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-31 miss | -0.41 | -0.47 | -15.1% | +0.0% | +0.2% | -5.3% | -15.5% |
| 2024-07-30 miss | -0.39 | -0.52 | -33.7% | -3.3% | -4.1% | -6.6% | -9.3% |
| 2024-05-09 beat | -0.60 | -0.54 | +10.2% | -9.5% | -14.3% | -17.5% | -31.8% |
| 2024-03-15 beat | -0.50 | -0.33 | +33.6% | +5.8% | +5.8% | +15.2% | +30.5% |
| 2023-11-09 miss | -0.46 | -0.75 | -63.0% | -8.4% | -8.8% | -3.9% | -19.0% |
| 2023-08-03 miss | -0.57 | -0.60 | -5.6% | -1.1% | -3.3% | -7.4% | -1.1% |
| 2023-05-10 miss | -0.80 | -0.87 | -8.4% | -11.1% | -5.8% | -1.7% | +26.3% |
| 2023-03-01 beat | -1.03 | -0.75 | +26.7% | +26.0% | +36.0% | +7.4% | +12.7% |
| 2022-11-09 miss | -0.96 | -1.05 | -9.0% | -7.3% | -11.9% | +10.9% | -10.9% |
| 2022-08-08 beat | -1.27 | -0.97 | +23.8% | +5.0% | +1.2% | +27.5% | +33.2% |
| 2022-05-10 miss | -1.26 | -1.39 | -10.3% | -20.8% | -61.1% | +54.9% | +75.2% |
| 2022-03-08 miss | -0.88 | -1.15 | -30.8% | +8.8% | +11.6% | -4.1% | +18.2% |
| 2021-11-15 miss | -0.85 | -1.05 | -23.1% | -12.1% | -14.8% | -4.1% | -24.0% |
| 2021-08-11 beat | -0.87 | -0.84 | +4.1% | +0.2% | -1.7% | -16.4% | -9.1% |
| 2021-05-17 beat | -1.16 | 0.29 | +125.4% | -10.6% | -1.4% | -6.0% | -7.9% |
| 2021-03-15 beat | -0.73 | -0.30 | +59.1% | +2.0% | +0.8% | -3.2% | -36.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-23); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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