Since 2016, days at this level gave +1.7% over 2 months (74% up) — no edge vs the +2.6% average.
→ Nothing to do — wait for a spike.
Buy S&P 500 while VIX is in the
15.8–16.9 band, average return over the…
next 1 month
+1.1%
median +1.6% · 72% up · -0.2pp vs avg · n=248
next 2 months
+1.7%
median +2.8% · 74% up · -0.9pp vs avg · n=243
next 3 months
+3.0%
median +4.0% · 79% up · -1.0pp vs avg · n=233
Return after a day in each VIX band, over the hold
period picked above — bars are the mean, tick marks the median. Dashed: all-days average.
Ringed: now.Each day's VIX vs the return over the following weeks. Line: today.
Noisy — the edge is in the right tail.Full VIX history; shaded above 25.
Dark panel = outside the 10-year window.
How to read this ▾
The VIX is the market's 30-day volatility estimate off S&P 500 options — it
rises when traders are afraid. Each day since 2016 is sorted by its VIX close; we show
what S&P 500 did over the next 1–3 months, % positive, and the gap vs the
all-days average.
The effect is one-sided: extreme fear (VIX 25+) has preceded strong returns; a mildly elevated
VIX (20–25) has been the weakest zone. Small overlapping samples — not a forecast.
End-of-day data, refreshed nightly. Forward returns use adjusted closes over 21 / 42 / 63 trading days;
overlapping windows, so samples aren't independent. Not a forecast, not investment advice.