Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Buying on VIX Levels

hold for
History 5y 10y 20y All
Buckets Bands 4 6 8 10
16.91 VIX ·16–17.6

No fear signal

8,495 days since 1993 · 2026-10-28

9.1–12.1 Calm
12.1–13.2 Calm
13.2–14.6 Calm
14.6–16 Normal
16–17.6 Normal VIX 16.91
17.6–19.5 Normal
19.5–21.6 Elevated
21.6–24.3 Elevated
24.3–28.7 Stressed
28.7–82.7 Panic
10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%

Since 1993, days at this level gave +1.8% over 2 months (71% up) — no edge vs the +1.9% average. → Nothing to do — wait for a spike.

Buy S&P 500 while VIX is in the 16–17.6 band, average return over the…
next 1 month
+0.9%
median +1.6% · 69% up · -0.1pp vs avg · n=842
next 2 months
+1.8%
median +2.5% · 71% up · -0.1pp vs avg · n=836
next 3 months
+2.9%
median +3.8% · 76% up · +0.0pp vs avg · n=835
Return after a day in each VIX band, over the hold period picked above — bars are the mean, tick marks the median. Dashed: all-days average. Ringed: now.
Each day's VIX vs the return over the following weeks. Line: today. Noisy — the edge is in the right tail.
Full VIX history; shaded above 25.
How to read this  ▾

The VIX is the market's 30-day volatility estimate off S&P 500 options — it rises when traders are afraid. Each day since 1993 is sorted by its VIX close; we show what S&P 500 did over the next 1–3 months, % positive, and the gap vs the all-days average.

The effect is one-sided: extreme fear (VIX 25+) has preceded strong returns; a mildly elevated VIX (20–25) has been the weakest zone. Small overlapping samples — not a forecast.

End-of-day data, refreshed nightly. Forward returns use adjusted closes over 21 / 42 / 63 trading days; overlapping windows, so samples aren't independent. Not a forecast, not investment advice.