Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Buying on VIX Levels

hold for
History 5y 10y 20y All
Buckets Bands 4 6 8 10
15.84 VIX ·14.6–16

No fear signal

8,462 days since 1993 · 2026-09-11

9.1–12.1 Calm
12.1–13.2 Calm
13.2–14.6 Calm
14.6–16 Normal VIX 15.84
16–17.6 Normal
17.6–19.5 Normal
19.5–21.6 Elevated
21.6–24.3 Elevated
24.3–28.7 Stressed
28.7–82.7 Panic
10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%

Since 1993, days at this level gave +1.3% over 2 months (66% up) — no edge vs the +1.9% average. → Nothing to do — wait for a spike.

Buy S&P 500 while VIX is in the 14.6–16 band, average return over the…
next 1 month
+0.7%
median +1.3% · 67% up · -0.3pp vs avg · n=832
next 2 months
+1.3%
median +2.2% · 66% up · -0.6pp vs avg · n=823
next 3 months
+2.4%
median +2.9% · 71% up · -0.4pp vs avg · n=820
Return after a day in each VIX band, over the hold period picked above — bars are the mean, tick marks the median. Dashed: all-days average. Ringed: now.
Each day's VIX vs the return over the following weeks. Line: today. Noisy — the edge is in the right tail.
Full VIX history; shaded above 25.
How to read this  ▾

The VIX is the market's 30-day volatility estimate off S&P 500 options — it rises when traders are afraid. Each day since 1993 is sorted by its VIX close; we show what S&P 500 did over the next 1–3 months, % positive, and the gap vs the all-days average.

The effect is one-sided: extreme fear (VIX 25+) has preceded strong returns; a mildly elevated VIX (20–25) has been the weakest zone. Small overlapping samples — not a forecast.

End-of-day data, refreshed nightly. Forward returns use adjusted closes over 21 / 42 / 63 trading days; overlapping windows, so samples aren't independent. Not a forecast, not investment advice.