Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Buying on VIX Levels

hold for
History 5y 10y 20y All
Buckets Bands 4 6 8 10
16.91 VIX ·15.3–17.7

No fear signal

1,255 days since 2021 · 2026-10-28

11.8–15.3 Calm
15.3–17.7 Normal VIX 16.91
17.7–21.7 Normal
21.7–52.3 Fear
25%25%25%25%

Since 2021, days at this level gave +1.6% over 2 months (72% up) — no edge vs the +2.1% average. → Nothing to do — wait for a spike.

Buy S&P 500 while VIX is in the 15.3–17.7 band, average return over the…
next 1 month
+0.9%
median +1.2% · 70% up · -0.2pp vs avg · n=303
next 2 months
+1.6%
median +2.3% · 72% up · -0.5pp vs avg · n=293
next 3 months
+3.3%
median +3.7% · 77% up · -0.0pp vs avg · n=284
Return after a day in each VIX band, over the hold period picked above — bars are the mean, tick marks the median. Dashed: all-days average. Ringed: now.
Each day's VIX vs the return over the following weeks. Line: today. Noisy — the edge is in the right tail.
Full VIX history; shaded above 25. Dark panel = outside the 5-year window.
How to read this  ▾

The VIX is the market's 30-day volatility estimate off S&P 500 options — it rises when traders are afraid. Each day since 2021 is sorted by its VIX close; we show what S&P 500 did over the next 1–3 months, % positive, and the gap vs the all-days average.

The effect is one-sided: extreme fear (VIX 25+) has preceded strong returns; a mildly elevated VIX (20–25) has been the weakest zone. Small overlapping samples — not a forecast.

End-of-day data, refreshed nightly. Forward returns use adjusted closes over 21 / 42 / 63 trading days; overlapping windows, so samples aren't independent. Not a forecast, not investment advice.