Since 2021, days at this level gave +1.0% over 2 months (67% up) — no edge vs the +2.3% average.
→ Nothing to do — wait for a spike.
Buy S&P 500 while VIX is in the
14.4–16.2 band, average return over the…
next 1 month
+1.0%
median +1.2% · 71% up · -0.2pp vs avg · n=195
next 2 months
+1.0%
median +2.0% · 67% up · -1.3pp vs avg · n=186
next 3 months
+2.4%
median +3.4% · 67% up · -0.9pp vs avg · n=181
Return after a day in each VIX band, over the hold
period picked above — bars are the mean, tick marks the median. Dashed: all-days average.
Ringed: now.Each day's VIX vs the return over the following weeks. Line: today.
Noisy — the edge is in the right tail.Full VIX history; shaded above 25.
Dark panel = outside the 5-year window.
How to read this ▾
The VIX is the market's 30-day volatility estimate off S&P 500 options — it
rises when traders are afraid. Each day since 2021 is sorted by its VIX close; we show
what S&P 500 did over the next 1–3 months, % positive, and the gap vs the
all-days average.
The effect is one-sided: extreme fear (VIX 25+) has preceded strong returns; a mildly elevated
VIX (20–25) has been the weakest zone. Small overlapping samples — not a forecast.
End-of-day data, refreshed nightly. Forward returns use adjusted closes over 21 / 42 / 63 trading days;
overlapping windows, so samples aren't independent. Not a forecast, not investment advice.