Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Buying on VIX Levels

hold for
History 5y 10y 20y All
Buckets Bands 4 6 8 10
16.91 VIX ·15.6–17

No fear signal

2,513 days since 2016 · 2026-10-28

9.1–12.3 Calm
12.3–13.9 Calm
13.9–15.6 Calm
15.6–17 Normal VIX 16.91
17–18.8 Normal
18.8–21.5 Elevated
21.5–25.9 Elevated
25.9–82.7 Panic
12%13%12%12%12%12%12%12%

Since 2016, days at this level gave +1.6% over 2 months (74% up) — no edge vs the +2.6% average. → Nothing to do — wait for a spike.

Buy S&P 500 while VIX is in the 15.6–17 band, average return over the…
next 1 month
+1.1%
median +1.6% · 72% up · -0.2pp vs avg · n=309
next 2 months
+1.6%
median +2.7% · 74% up · -1.0pp vs avg · n=302
next 3 months
+2.9%
median +3.7% · 79% up · -1.0pp vs avg · n=295
Return after a day in each VIX band, over the hold period picked above — bars are the mean, tick marks the median. Dashed: all-days average. Ringed: now.
Each day's VIX vs the return over the following weeks. Line: today. Noisy — the edge is in the right tail.
Full VIX history; shaded above 25. Dark panel = outside the 10-year window.
How to read this  ▾

The VIX is the market's 30-day volatility estimate off S&P 500 options — it rises when traders are afraid. Each day since 2016 is sorted by its VIX close; we show what S&P 500 did over the next 1–3 months, % positive, and the gap vs the all-days average.

The effect is one-sided: extreme fear (VIX 25+) has preceded strong returns; a mildly elevated VIX (20–25) has been the weakest zone. Small overlapping samples — not a forecast.

End-of-day data, refreshed nightly. Forward returns use adjusted closes over 21 / 42 / 63 trading days; overlapping windows, so samples aren't independent. Not a forecast, not investment advice.