Backtested and hypothetical results, shown for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Buying on VIX Levels

hold for
History 5y 10y 20y All
Buckets Bands 4 6 8 10
16.91 VIX ·16.5–17.7

No fear signal

1,255 days since 2021 · 2026-10-28

11.8–13.9 Calm
13.9–15.3 Calm
15.3–16.5 Normal
16.5–17.7 Normal VIX 16.91
17.7–19.2 Normal
19.2–21.7 Elevated
21.7–25.7 Elevated
25.7–52.3 Fear
12%12%12%13%12%12%13%12%

Since 2021, days at this level gave +2.4% over 2 months (77% up) — no edge vs the +2.1% average. → Nothing to do — wait for a spike.

Buy S&P 500 while VIX is in the 16.5–17.7 band, average return over the…
next 1 month
+1.1%
median +1.5% · 74% up · -0.0pp vs avg · n=152
next 2 months
+2.4%
median +3.0% · 77% up · +0.3pp vs avg · n=149
next 3 months
+4.1%
median +4.7% · 80% up · +0.8pp vs avg · n=148
Return after a day in each VIX band, over the hold period picked above — bars are the mean, tick marks the median. Dashed: all-days average. Ringed: now.
Each day's VIX vs the return over the following weeks. Line: today. Noisy — the edge is in the right tail.
Full VIX history; shaded above 25. Dark panel = outside the 5-year window.
How to read this  ▾

The VIX is the market's 30-day volatility estimate off S&P 500 options — it rises when traders are afraid. Each day since 2021 is sorted by its VIX close; we show what S&P 500 did over the next 1–3 months, % positive, and the gap vs the all-days average.

The effect is one-sided: extreme fear (VIX 25+) has preceded strong returns; a mildly elevated VIX (20–25) has been the weakest zone. Small overlapping samples — not a forecast.

End-of-day data, refreshed nightly. Forward returns use adjusted closes over 21 / 42 / 63 trading days; overlapping windows, so samples aren't independent. Not a forecast, not investment advice.