AAP chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -3.7% | -3.7% | 18.1% | 35% |
| Day 2 | -1.9% | -1.6% | 3.7% | 25% |
| Day 3 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 3.3% | 40% |
| 5-day | -6.7% | -8.4% | 19.3% | 25% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 beat | 0.80 | 1.03 | +28.2% | -16.6% | -24.5% | +3.0% | — |
| 2026-05-21 beat | 0.44 | 0.77 | +75.6% | +12.4% | +14.4% | +2.8% | -6.5% |
| 2026-02-13 beat | 0.41 | 0.86 | +109.3% | +8.2% | +1.1% | -5.9% | -11.8% |
| 2025-10-30 beat | 0.74 | 0.92 | +23.5% | +7.8% | -8.0% | -6.4% | +4.2% |
| 2025-08-14 beat | 0.58 | 0.69 | +18.3% | -12.6% | -8.0% | -2.2% | +12.9% |
| 2025-05-22 beat | -0.69 | -0.22 | +68.0% | +37.6% | +57.0% | -2.5% | -1.9% |
| 2025-02-26 beat | -1.23 | -1.18 | +4.2% | -5.2% | -17.8% | -8.9% | +7.1% |
| 2024-11-14 miss | 0.44 | -0.04 | -109.1% | +6.2% | +0.6% | -6.1% | +6.7% |
| 2024-08-22 miss | 0.94 | 0.75 | -19.9% | -21.8% | -17.5% | -9.7% | -20.6% |
| 2024-05-29 beat | 0.63 | 0.67 | +6.5% | -8.3% | -11.0% | +4.5% | +1.4% |
| 2024-02-28 miss | 0.22 | -0.59 | -371.9% | +1.5% | +2.6% | +8.3% | +28.1% |
| 2023-11-15 miss | 1.45 | -0.82 | -156.6% | -6.2% | -4.7% | -5.5% | +12.7% |
| 2023-08-23 miss | 1.67 | 1.43 | -14.2% | +0.2% | +3.1% | -1.9% | -17.1% |
| 2023-05-31 miss | 2.56 | 0.72 | -71.9% | -29.4% | -35.0% | -10.1% | -3.6% |
| 2023-02-28 beat | 2.42 | 2.88 | +18.8% | +3.1% | +3.1% | -7.8% | -18.9% |
| 2022-11-15 miss | 3.34 | 2.84 | -14.9% | -15.7% | -15.1% | -3.6% | -10.3% |
| 2022-08-23 miss | 3.75 | 3.74 | -0.4% | -8.2% | -9.6% | -6.3% | -10.8% |
| 2022-05-23 miss | 3.59 | 3.57 | -0.5% | -4.3% | -1.6% | +4.1% | +1.6% |
| 2022-02-14 beat | 1.97 | 2.07 | +5.0% | -3.5% | -0.7% | -11.6% | -6.5% |
| 2021-11-15 beat | 2.85 | 3.21 | +12.6% | -1.3% | -2.6% | +0.0% | +1.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.