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BK chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | +0.0% | 3.8% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +0.5% | +0.6% | 1.6% | 64% |
| Day 3 | +0.2% | +0.3% | 1.6% | 57% |
| 5-day | +0.5% | +1.1% | 5.1% | 59% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
Each report's EPS vs. the same ticker's report ~1 year earlier. Skips any comparison where the prior-year EPS was zero or negative -- a swing from a loss to a profit is real, but "growth %" on a negative base isn't a meaningful number.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 beat | 1.93 | 2.25 | +16.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-13 beat | 1.98 | 2.08 | +4.9% | — | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-16 beat | 1.77 | 1.91 | +8.1% | -1.1% | -2.0% | +0.0% | +3.5% |
| 2025-07-15 beat | 1.76 | 1.94 | +10.1% | -1.6% | -0.1% | +3.9% | +7.1% |
| 2025-04-11 beat | 1.49 | 1.58 | +5.9% | -3.9% | +1.4% | -4.7% | +13.2% |
| 2025-01-15 beat | 1.57 | 1.72 | +9.8% | +4.2% | +8.0% | +3.3% | +7.1% |
| 2024-10-11 beat | 1.42 | 1.52 | +6.9% | +1.0% | -0.4% | +3.4% | +6.1% |
| 2024-07-12 beat | 1.43 | 1.51 | +5.8% | +2.7% | +5.2% | -3.1% | -2.2% |
| 2024-04-16 beat | 1.19 | 1.29 | +8.5% | +0.5% | -2.0% | +6.4% | +8.9% |
| 2024-01-12 beat | 1.12 | 1.28 | +14.0% | +4.3% | +4.0% | +0.0% | -1.8% |
| 2023-10-17 beat | 1.14 | 1.27 | +11.6% | -2.0% | +3.8% | -3.8% | +7.2% |
| 2023-07-18 beat | 1.22 | 1.38 | +13.5% | +0.5% | +4.1% | -1.2% | -2.7% |
| 2023-04-18 beat | 1.11 | 1.13 | +1.7% | -0.8% | +1.5% | -5.3% | -9.4% |
| 2023-01-13 beat | 1.24 | 1.30 | +4.7% | -1.0% | +1.8% | +0.6% | +5.5% |
| 2022-10-17 beat | 1.08 | 1.21 | +11.7% | +2.8% | +5.1% | +1.2% | +8.6% |
| 2022-07-15 beat | 1.11 | 1.15 | +3.5% | +3.2% | +7.3% | -1.6% | +3.0% |
| 2022-04-18 beat | 0.86 | 0.94 | +9.9% | -3.6% | -2.3% | -4.0% | -3.5% |
| 2022-01-18 beat | 1.01 | 1.04 | +2.7% | -3.0% | -1.1% | -6.2% | -0.7% |
| 2021-10-19 beat | 1.00 | 1.04 | +3.5% | -2.5% | +0.4% | +2.5% | +0.7% |
| 2021-07-15 beat | 1.00 | 1.13 | +12.7% | -2.0% | -1.2% | +2.4% | +10.7% |
| 2021-04-16 beat | 0.86 | 0.97 | +12.3% | -2.0% | -4.0% | +3.3% | +13.1% |
| 2021-01-20 beat | 0.91 | 0.96 | +5.2% | -4.6% | -7.3% | -6.3% | -0.4% |
| 2020-10-16 beat | 0.94 | 0.98 | +3.8% | +2.6% | +2.1% | -0.9% | +4.4% |
| 2020-07-15 beat | 0.92 | 1.01 | +9.6% | -5.2% | -5.4% | -2.2% | +1.1% |
| 2020-04-16 beat | 0.91 | 1.05 | +15.4% | +7.5% | +4.4% | -2.3% | -11.3% |
| 2020-01-16 beat | 1.00 | 1.01 | +0.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% | -1.6% | -3.1% |
| 2019-10-16 beat | 0.99 | 1.07 | +8.2% | +1.4% | +0.2% | +5.2% | +9.0% |
| 2019-07-17 beat | 0.96 | 1.01 | +5.8% | +0.6% | +2.3% | +6.8% | -5.6% |
| 2019-04-17 miss | 0.96 | 0.94 | -2.2% | -7.0% | -9.5% | +0.4% | -4.7% |
| 2019-01-16 beat | 0.92 | 0.99 | +7.3% | +1.4% | +2.1% | +6.5% | +5.1% |
| 2018-10-18 beat | 1.04 | 1.06 | +2.2% | -3.2% | -2.8% | -3.4% | +3.3% |
| 2018-07-19 beat | 1.02 | 1.03 | +1.0% | -2.3% | -5.2% | +1.3% | -2.0% |
| 2018-04-19 beat | 0.96 | 1.10 | +14.5% | +2.8% | +5.7% | +0.4% | +3.1% |
| 2018-01-18 beat | 0.91 | 0.91 | +0.4% | -4.3% | -4.4% | +2.7% | +1.6% |
| 2017-10-19 beat | 0.92 | 0.94 | +1.7% | -0.8% | -3.0% | -1.2% | -0.7% |
| 2017-07-20 beat | 0.85 | 0.88 | +4.0% | +0.9% | +1.6% | -1.9% | -3.4% |
| 2017-04-20 beat | 0.80 | 0.83 | +4.2% | +0.9% | -0.4% | +1.2% | -0.2% |
| 2017-01-19 miss | 0.77 | 0.77 | -0.4% | +0.3% | -3.0% | +0.3% | +5.1% |
| 2016-10-20 beat | 0.81 | 0.90 | +11.1% | +2.8% | +4.5% | +3.4% | +12.3% |
| 2016-07-21 beat | 0.75 | 0.76 | +1.1% | -1.4% | -3.5% | +3.2% | +4.3% |
| 2016-04-21 beat | 0.68 | 0.74 | +9.5% | +1.1% | +2.5% | -0.1% | +0.9% |
| 2016-01-21 beat | 0.64 | 0.68 | +6.3% | +0.7% | -3.3% | +3.1% | +3.3% |
| 2015-10-20 beat | 0.71 | 0.74 | +4.7% | +2.1% | +2.7% | +1.1% | +6.7% |
| 2015-07-21 beat | 0.66 | 0.77 | +16.7% | +1.4% | +2.7% | -1.3% | +0.1% |
| 2015-04-22 beat | 0.60 | 0.67 | +12.2% | +1.7% | +3.4% | +1.0% | +2.9% |
| 2015-01-23 miss | 0.60 | 0.58 | -2.7% | -2.1% | -4.7% | -2.4% | +7.8% |
| 2014-10-17 beat | 0.61 | 0.64 | +4.5% | +1.1% | +0.6% | +2.1% | +9.3% |
| 2014-07-18 beat | 0.56 | 0.56 | +0.3% | +0.0% | +1.1% | +2.6% | +0.4% |
| 2014-04-22 beat | 0.53 | 0.57 | +6.7% | -0.4% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +1.7% |
| 2014-01-17 beat | 0.54 | 0.55 | +2.2% | -1.4% | -3.6% | -2.0% | -4.8% |
| 2013-10-16 beat | 0.58 | 0.62 | +7.0% | +1.0% | -0.3% | +2.7% | +7.7% |
| 2013-07-17 beat | 0.57 | 0.63 | +11.2% | +2.3% | +1.9% | +3.2% | -1.6% |
| 2013-04-17 beat | 0.52 | 0.53 | +2.3% | -2.4% | -2.1% | +2.4% | +9.8% |
| 2013-01-16 beat | 0.54 | 0.56 | +3.9% | -3.7% | -2.8% | +3.7% | +7.5% |
| 2012-10-17 beat | 0.54 | 0.63 | +16.2% | +3.1% | +5.5% | -1.0% | -3.4% |
| 2012-07-18 beat | 0.53 | 0.57 | +7.7% | -0.5% | -0.1% | -5.0% | +3.8% |
| 2012-04-18 beat | 0.52 | 0.52 | +1.2% | -2.5% | -3.0% | +2.5% | -11.6% |
| 2012-01-18 miss | 0.54 | 0.49 | -9.0% | -3.9% | -4.6% | +1.3% | +8.3% |
| 2011-10-19 beat | 0.53 | 0.60 | +14.7% | +0.0% | -1.2% | +7.3% | -3.1% |
| 2011-07-19 beat | 0.56 | 0.61 | +9.6% | +1.9% | +0.4% | +4.0% | -15.9% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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