BLUE chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.6% | +3.0% | 11.0% | 56% |
| Day 2 | -3.6% | -7.9% | 10.2% | 22% |
| Day 3 | -0.2% | +0.2% | 4.8% | 56% |
| 5-day | -5.6% | -0.9% | 17.8% | 44% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | -2.62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-14 beat | -4.63 | -2.66 | +42.5% | +0.0% | -0.2% | +0.4% | — |
| 2025-03-27 beat | -6.29 | -2.84 | +54.9% | -0.3% | +7.7% | +21.3% | +1.0% |
| 2024-11-14 beat | -7.00 | -6.20 | +11.4% | -1.4% | -3.6% | -17.8% | +7.7% |
| 2024-09-27 miss | -6.80 | -8.40 | -23.5% | +1.1% | +3.0% | +0.2% | -5.3% |
| 2024-09-13 miss | -11.20 | -15.60 | -39.3% | +2.4% | -4.6% | -15.4% | -16.7% |
| 2023-11-07 miss | -12.60 | -13.20 | -4.8% | +4.2% | +7.3% | -7.6% | +35.9% |
| 2023-08-08 beat | -13.52 | -13.40 | +0.9% | -1.9% | +8.1% | -6.9% | -9.3% |
| 2023-05-09 miss | -9.44 | -13.93 | -47.6% | -3.2% | +12.6% | -24.9% | -23.3% |
| 2023-03-29 beat | -17.64 | -16.30 | +7.6% | -14.8% | -24.5% | -5.8% | +33.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.