HMC chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.2% | -0.9% | 3.1% | 36% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | +0.2% | 1.8% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +0.0% | +0.1% | 1.4% | 50% |
| 5-day | -1.3% | -0.1% | 5.0% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-01-31 miss | 0.87 | 0.85 | -2.3% | -1.8% | -1.8% | -2.6% | -1.5% |
| 2013-10-30 miss | 0.84 | 0.68 | -19.0% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% | +5.6% |
| 2013-07-31 miss | 0.93 | 0.69 | -25.6% | -0.7% | -0.7% | +3.4% | -1.3% |
| 2013-06-14 miss | 0.58 | 0.44 | -23.8% | -2.6% | -3.1% | +1.1% | +4.9% |
| 2013-01-31 miss | 0.64 | 0.47 | -26.5% | -0.5% | -1.1% | +1.7% | -0.7% |
| 2012-10-29 miss | 0.85 | 0.57 | -32.6% | -4.4% | -4.5% | +0.8% | +10.4% |
| 2012-07-31 miss | 1.16 | 0.94 | -19.4% | +0.3% | -1.6% | +2.3% | +3.5% |
| 2012-04-27 miss | 0.54 | 0.49 | -8.7% | +1.8% | +1.6% | -6.1% | -11.6% |
| 2012-01-31 miss | 0.44 | 0.35 | -20.8% | +3.5% | +3.3% | +4.1% | +7.6% |
| 2011-10-31 beat | 0.41 | 0.44 | +9.0% | -7.6% | -8.1% | +2.1% | +5.9% |
| 2011-08-01 beat | -0.21 | 0.23 | +206.6% | +2.1% | +0.5% | -13.8% | -20.4% |
| 2011-04-28 miss | 0.52 | 0.30 | -41.9% | -0.3% | +0.6% | +1.8% | -0.9% |
| 2011-01-31 beat | 0.48 | 0.55 | +14.6% | +0.1% | +3.1% | -1.3% | -0.8% |
| 2010-10-29 beat | 0.57 | 0.94 | +64.3% | -3.1% | -4.7% | +5.9% | +8.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.