PAR chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.6% | -0.7% | 11.3% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +2.3% | +1.2% | 6.5% | 65% |
| Day 3 | +2.5% | +2.3% | 3.1% | 80% |
| 5-day | +4.6% | +5.8% | 10.4% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 beat | 0.12 | 0.18 | +47.9% | +8.1% | +4.0% | +7.0% | +3.3% |
| 2026-05-07 beat | 0.06 | 0.10 | +61.3% | +0.1% | -3.9% | +2.1% | -6.0% |
| 2026-02-26 beat | 0.03 | 0.06 | +90.9% | -12.0% | -27.0% | +17.3% | -21.7% |
| 2025-11-06 beat | -0.02 | 0.06 | +380.0% | +11.2% | +16.6% | +0.6% | -8.1% |
| 2025-08-08 | — | 0.03 | — | -3.3% | -19.5% | +11.1% | +0.3% |
| 2025-05-09 beat | -0.04 | -0.01 | +76.7% | -3.1% | +3.7% | +7.9% | +2.1% |
| 2025-02-28 beat | -0.08 | — | +100.0% | +1.7% | +13.2% | -6.5% | -10.7% |
| 2024-11-08 miss | -0.09 | -0.09 | -1.6% | +1.7% | +11.6% | -2.6% | +4.1% |
| 2024-08-08 miss | -0.17 | -0.23 | -38.8% | +3.2% | +10.3% | +6.6% | +6.5% |
| 2024-05-09 miss | -0.30 | -0.36 | -20.6% | -9.5% | -7.3% | +9.3% | +9.8% |
| 2024-02-27 miss | -0.26 | -0.33 | -26.2% | -5.9% | -4.2% | -4.5% | +3.6% |
| 2023-11-09 beat | -0.36 | -0.21 | +41.7% | +6.3% | +9.3% | +9.2% | +13.5% |
| 2023-08-09 miss | -0.34 | -0.52 | -52.0% | -9.7% | -6.6% | +13.4% | +29.2% |
| 2023-05-10 miss | -0.36 | -0.46 | -29.0% | -6.3% | -2.6% | +18.8% | +27.7% |
| 2023-03-01 beat | -0.44 | -0.26 | +41.6% | -0.4% | +1.3% | +2.6% | -5.3% |
| 2022-11-09 miss | -0.41 | -0.44 | -7.3% | -0.2% | -11.6% | +22.6% | +12.1% |
| 2022-08-09 beat | -0.36 | -0.36 | +1.4% | +3.5% | -11.5% | +1.9% | -14.0% |
| 2022-05-10 beat | -0.46 | -0.26 | +43.0% | -1.6% | +10.3% | +4.5% | +11.1% |
| 2022-03-01 beat | -0.40 | -0.36 | +11.1% | +0.7% | -2.8% | -3.2% | +0.3% |
| 2021-11-09 beat | -0.38 | -0.36 | +4.6% | +12.6% | +3.8% | -2.8% | -19.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.