THR chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.3% | +1.3% | 7.1% | 56% |
| Day 2 | -0.9% | -0.3% | 3.4% | 37% |
| Day 3 | +2.0% | +1.6% | 4.6% | 67% |
| 5-day | +1.5% | +1.1% | 10.0% | 63% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
Each report's EPS vs. the same ticker's report ~1 year earlier. Skips any comparison where the prior-year EPS was zero or negative -- a swing from a loss to a profit is real, but "growth %" on a negative base isn't a meaningful number.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 0.37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-19 | 0.55 | 0.55 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-05 beat | 0.58 | 0.66 | +13.4% | — | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-06 beat | 0.36 | 0.55 | +51.7% | +8.8% | +11.5% | +6.2% | +16.6% |
| 2025-08-07 | 0.36 | 0.36 | — | -4.0% | -11.6% | +1.4% | +1.7% |
| 2025-05-22 beat | 0.51 | 0.56 | +10.9% | -2.0% | -0.9% | -10.1% | -4.9% |
| 2025-02-06 beat | 0.55 | 0.56 | +1.4% | +7.1% | -1.6% | +12.9% | +6.9% |
| 2024-11-07 beat | 0.37 | 0.38 | +3.4% | -12.3% | -1.4% | +2.0% | +9.0% |
| 2024-08-07 beat | 0.31 | 0.38 | +21.6% | +2.8% | -0.1% | +0.4% | -5.0% |
| 2024-05-29 beat | 0.32 | 0.35 | +9.4% | +2.7% | +3.4% | -12.5% | -14.6% |
| 2024-02-01 beat | 0.51 | 0.59 | +16.8% | -10.1% | -17.9% | -0.1% | +2.5% |
| 2023-11-02 beat | 0.35 | 0.49 | +42.0% | +4.7% | +6.6% | +6.7% | +7.7% |
| 2023-08-03 beat | 0.29 | 0.40 | +37.9% | -2.5% | -6.8% | -0.5% | +7.1% |
| 2023-05-25 | 0.41 | 0.41 | — | +0.7% | +3.0% | +1.2% | +11.9% |
| 2023-02-02 beat | 0.37 | 0.52 | +40.5% | +5.3% | +0.5% | +14.4% | +16.3% |
| 2022-11-03 beat | 0.20 | 0.38 | +90.0% | +6.8% | +2.4% | +9.6% | +13.8% |
| 2022-08-04 beat | 0.11 | 0.25 | +127.3% | +2.1% | +3.5% | +9.5% | +5.1% |
| 2022-05-26 beat | 0.28 | 0.31 | +8.8% | +2.1% | +1.3% | -1.3% | -5.8% |
| 2022-02-03 beat | 0.35 | 0.37 | +7.2% | -2.3% | +2.7% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
| 2021-11-09 beat | 0.11 | 0.12 | +9.1% | -0.3% | +5.5% | -4.4% | -14.0% |
| 2021-08-05 beat | 0.03 | 0.07 | +133.3% | +3.9% | +4.1% | -1.7% | -7.7% |
| 2021-05-27 miss | 0.19 | 0.03 | -84.5% | -5.9% | -11.3% | +1.9% | +0.1% |
| 2021-02-04 beat | 0.23 | 0.30 | +32.4% | +0.1% | +2.9% | -0.1% | +34.2% |
| 2020-11-05 beat | 0.07 | 0.12 | +77.8% | -1.0% | +6.9% | +8.6% | +44.4% |
| 2020-08-06 beat | -0.12 | -0.11 | +12.0% | -1.0% | -3.8% | -0.1% | -7.8% |
| 2020-06-01 miss | 0.17 | 0.01 | -94.0% | -10.0% | -10.9% | +17.9% | +2.0% |
| 2020-02-06 miss | 0.42 | 0.28 | -33.3% | -19.1% | -10.4% | -1.9% | -32.1% |
| 2019-11-05 beat | 0.22 | 0.29 | +31.8% | +7.7% | +8.6% | -1.6% | -3.7% |
| 2019-08-08 miss | 0.23 | 0.15 | -33.3% | -5.0% | -0.9% | -8.5% | -3.6% |
| 2019-06-06 miss | 0.33 | 0.32 | -1.5% | -1.8% | +6.0% | +0.2% | +7.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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