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TPH chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.4% | -0.1% | 4.7% | 41% |
| Day 2 | +1.5% | +1.6% | 3.3% | 63% |
| Day 3 | -0.2% | -0.2% | 2.9% | 41% |
| 5-day | -0.2% | -2.3% | 7.3% | 37% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
Each report's EPS vs. the same ticker's report ~1 year earlier. Skips any comparison where the prior-year EPS was zero or negative -- a swing from a loss to a profit is real, but "growth %" on a negative base isn't a meaningful number.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 0.44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 miss | 0.17 | 0.16 | -3.9% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 beat | 0.78 | 0.80 | +2.3% | — | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-23 beat | 0.52 | 0.64 | +23.1% | +2.1% | +2.0% | -4.7% | -2.6% |
| 2025-07-24 beat | 0.68 | 0.77 | +13.5% | +2.0% | -9.8% | -2.9% | +13.9% |
| 2025-04-24 beat | 0.49 | 0.70 | +42.9% | +2.3% | -0.1% | +0.2% | -3.3% |
| 2025-02-18 beat | 1.29 | 1.37 | +6.4% | -2.9% | -10.9% | +0.9% | -1.5% |
| 2024-10-24 beat | 1.07 | 1.18 | +10.1% | +0.0% | -4.2% | -0.7% | +4.6% |
| 2024-07-25 beat | 1.09 | 1.25 | +14.8% | -2.0% | -0.2% | -2.1% | +1.3% |
| 2024-04-25 beat | 0.73 | 1.03 | +40.4% | +1.8% | +1.8% | +3.5% | +4.1% |
| 2024-02-20 beat | 1.18 | 1.36 | +15.6% | -2.4% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +3.1% |
| 2023-10-26 beat | 0.56 | 0.76 | +36.1% | +2.2% | +1.3% | +8.1% | +16.6% |
| 2023-07-27 beat | 0.58 | 0.60 | +2.8% | -1.8% | -8.1% | +2.4% | -2.5% |
| 2023-04-27 beat | 0.41 | 0.73 | +76.6% | +1.7% | +3.1% | +5.9% | +8.5% |
| 2023-02-21 beat | 1.55 | 1.98 | +27.4% | +7.5% | +3.7% | +3.2% | +5.3% |
| 2022-10-27 beat | 1.23 | 1.45 | +17.9% | +0.8% | +1.7% | -3.6% | +6.4% |
| 2022-07-21 beat | 1.21 | 1.33 | +10.4% | -3.4% | -0.7% | -3.6% | -5.8% |
| 2022-04-21 beat | 0.62 | 0.81 | +30.6% | +3.2% | -3.5% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 2022-02-17 beat | 1.25 | 1.46 | +16.7% | -4.4% | -6.0% | +0.8% | +2.0% |
| 2021-10-21 beat | 0.87 | 1.17 | +34.5% | -0.4% | +0.0% | +0.8% | +8.5% |
| 2021-07-22 beat | 0.82 | 1.00 | +21.8% | +2.8% | +3.2% | +12.5% | +9.4% |
| 2021-04-22 beat | 0.47 | 0.59 | +25.1% | +0.6% | -3.5% | +13.8% | +7.6% |
| 2021-02-18 beat | 0.68 | 0.92 | +35.3% | -0.1% | -4.2% | -0.9% | +5.8% |
| 2020-10-22 beat | 0.44 | 0.63 | +44.4% | +1.0% | -7.3% | -0.5% | +4.7% |
| 2020-07-24 beat | 0.34 | 0.51 | +50.5% | +0.8% | -4.5% | +2.6% | +12.6% |
| 2020-04-23 beat | 0.17 | 0.24 | +41.2% | +8.3% | +6.2% | +6.8% | +38.3% |
| 2020-02-18 beat | 0.71 | 0.95 | +34.5% | +2.7% | +4.7% | -8.8% | -61.5% |
| 2019-10-31 beat | 0.36 | 0.45 | +25.4% | +2.5% | +1.1% | -4.3% | -3.4% |
| 2019-07-25 beat | 0.15 | 0.19 | +26.3% | +2.2% | +4.4% | +2.2% | +2.1% |
| 2019-04-25 beat | 0.02 | 0.03 | +58.7% | -3.2% | -7.6% | +1.7% | +0.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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