MG- Buyout premium gone
- Stock already down 11%
- Vegas demand is soft
- No catalyst left
Why now
Barry Diller pulled his $18 billion offer to take MGM private. That deal was the floor under this stock. Now it's gone.
The case
- The buyout is off. Diller offered $48.30/share back in June. On 9/23 he walked, saying the debt-heavy financing structure no longer penciled out.
- The stock is already falling. Down 8%+ after hours, then $37.85 to $33.69 (-11%) on 7x normal volume.
- The business underneath is weak too. MGM owns roughly 40% of Las Vegas Strip hotel rooms -- the most of any operator -- and Strip demand is soft, especially with budget travelers. It's been leaning on Macau and online betting to cover the gap.
- Nothing left to push it back up. No deal price to re-rate against, and nothing else on the calendar near-term.
🚨 Risk: Diller said he's still "open to" a future deal. A new bid rumor, or MGM announcing a buyback, could reverse this fast.
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