AEModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.6%
Next 1 week
+0.9%
Next 1 month
+3.0%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Dec 2): +5.5% median,
71% of the last 31 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 48
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.14%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 1.21 +2.9% · Seasonal tilt +0.1%
$81M/day volume
52% volatility
+16% 1-year
-50% from ATH
52-week range · 38% of the way up · -31% from the high
$14.10$28.46
Congressional trades in AEO Full tracker →
1 member · 1 buys / 1 sells · $30K–$100K disclosed · latest filing Jun 22, 2025.
| BUY | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-12-01 (Tuesday, after close, in 29 days) · EPS est. 0.43.
1-day std dev
10.1%
Finished up
40%
Biggest pop
+38.0%
Biggest drop
-15.8%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | beat | 0.22 | 0.79 | +259.1% | -13.0% | -14.0% | -11.7% |
| 2026-05-28 | beat | 0.11 | 0.14 | +30.2% | -18.2% | -11.8% | -8.3% |
| 2026-03-04 | miss | 0.72 | 0.50 | -30.2% | -8.0% | -13.9% | -21.8% |
| 2025-12-02 | beat | 0.44 | 0.53 | +21.6% | +14.5% | +15.1% | +16.0% |
| 2025-09-03 | beat | 0.20 | 0.45 | +119.8% | +30.3% | +38.0% | +44.0% |
| 2025-05-29 | miss | -0.22 | -0.36 | -64.5% | -9.3% | -2.0% | -9.1% |
| 2025-03-12 | beat | 0.50 | 0.54 | +7.5% | -4.0% | -4.1% | +3.4% |
| 2024-12-04 | beat | 0.46 | 0.48 | +3.4% | -15.8% | -14.3% | -15.5% |
| 2024-08-29 | beat | 0.38 | 0.39 | +2.6% | -9.2% | -4.2% | -13.0% |
| 2024-05-29 | beat | 0.28 | 0.34 | +19.7% | -10.2% | -7.6% | -10.4% |
| 2024-03-07 | beat | 0.50 | 0.61 | +20.9% | +11.4% | -1.9% | -1.6% |
| 2023-11-21 | beat | 0.49 | 0.49 | +0.4% | -17.7% | -15.8% | -3.3% |
| 2023-09-06 | beat | 0.15 | 0.25 | +66.1% | +1.3% | -2.5% | -11.0% |
| 2023-05-24 | beat | 0.17 | 0.17 | +0.8% | -16.4% | -11.9% | -8.5% |
| 2023-03-01 | miss | 0.30 | 0.28 | -6.1% | +1.4% | +1.2% | -2.8% |
| 2022-11-22 | beat | 0.22 | 0.42 | +89.3% | +7.8% | +18.2% | +21.7% |
| 2022-09-07 | miss | 0.13 | -0.24 | -278.7% | -13.1% | -8.7% | -7.1% |
| 2022-05-26 | miss | 0.25 | 0.16 | -36.0% | -9.9% | -6.6% | -11.3% |
| 2022-03-02 | miss | 0.35 | 0.35 | -0.4% | -6.4% | -9.3% | -15.0% |
| 2021-11-23 | beat | 0.61 | 0.76 | +25.0% | -2.0% | +4.8% | -5.9% |
| 2021-09-02 | beat | 0.55 | 0.60 | +8.9% | -11.6% | -10.1% | -10.0% |
| 2021-05-26 | miss | 0.47 | 0.46 | -2.9% | -1.0% | +2.3% | -4.5% |
| 2021-03-03 | miss | 0.37 | 0.02 | -94.7% | +10.1% | +8.9% | +15.7% |
| 2020-11-24 | beat | 0.35 | 0.35 | +1.3% | -0.1% | +3.9% | +6.2% |
| 2020-09-09 | beat | -0.16 | -0.03 | +81.5% | +0.0% | +1.6% | +16.6% |
| 2020-06-03 | miss | -0.37 | -1.54 | -314.2% | +9.8% | +14.7% | +16.6% |
| 2020-03-04 | miss | 0.35 | 0.03 | -91.5% | +2.4% | -7.8% | -30.5% |
| 2019-12-11 | beat | 0.47 | 0.48 | +1.4% | -8.8% | -6.5% | -2.2% |
| 2019-09-04 | beat | 0.32 | 0.39 | +22.0% | -12.7% | -11.6% | +7.6% |
| 2019-06-05 | beat | 0.21 | 0.24 | +14.5% | +6.4% | +0.1% | -10.4% |
| 2019-03-06 | beat | 0.42 | 0.43 | +2.8% | -3.1% | -0.4% | -1.5% |
| 2018-12-11 | miss | 0.48 | 0.48 | -0.7% | -4.6% | +2.9% | -4.8% |
| 2018-08-29 | beat | 0.31 | 0.34 | +10.6% | -9.3% | -6.5% | -8.7% |
| 2018-05-31 | beat | 0.22 | 0.22 | +0.4% | +0.8% | -1.8% | +6.5% |
| 2018-03-08 | beat | 0.44 | 0.52 | +17.4% | +0.2% | -9.4% | -4.8% |
| 2017-12-06 | miss | 0.38 | 0.37 | -3.7% | +4.6% | +2.4% | +9.4% |
| 2017-08-23 | beat | 0.16 | 0.19 | +17.7% | +12.4% | +7.8% | +8.6% |
| 2017-05-17 | miss | 0.17 | 0.16 | -3.5% | +0.0% | -14.7% | -12.7% |
| 2017-03-01 | miss | 0.38 | 0.30 | -21.7% | -6.8% | -9.5% | -7.9% |
| 2016-11-30 | miss | 0.41 | 0.41 | -0.1% | -10.8% | -12.4% | -6.3% |
| 2016-08-17 | beat | 0.21 | 0.23 | +7.3% | -5.1% | -3.3% | -0.6% |
| 2016-05-18 | beat | 0.18 | 0.22 | +23.3% | +16.1% | +18.3% | +15.2% |
| 2016-03-02 | beat | 0.42 | 0.42 | +0.9% | -1.4% | -2.8% | +5.8% |
| 2015-12-02 | beat | 0.34 | 0.35 | +2.9% | +2.0% | -3.1% | +0.9% |
| 2015-08-19 | beat | 0.14 | 0.17 | +22.1% | -3.9% | -7.5% | -8.4% |
| 2015-05-20 | beat | 0.11 | 0.15 | +34.8% | +7.0% | +5.5% | +2.4% |
| 2015-03-04 | beat | 0.34 | 0.36 | +5.5% | +9.2% | +7.7% | +15.9% |
| 2014-12-04 | beat | 0.22 | 0.22 | +1.2% | -11.3% | -13.8% | -4.3% |
| 2014-08-20 | beat | — | 0.03 | +14185.7% | +8.5% | +12.0% | +22.4% |
| 2014-05-21 | beat | — | 0.02 | +1297.6% | -4.3% | -6.4% | -4.2% |
| 2014-03-11 | beat | 0.26 | 0.27 | +4.2% | -5.1% | -7.8% | -9.8% |
| 2013-12-06 | beat | 0.18 | 0.19 | +3.4% | -2.7% | -9.5% | -13.6% |
| 2013-08-21 | miss | 0.10 | 0.10 | -0.6% | -10.6% | -9.9% | -10.6% |
| 2013-05-22 | beat | 0.17 | 0.18 | +4.3% | -1.6% | +0.8% | -2.7% |
| 2013-03-06 | miss | 0.56 | 0.55 | -1.9% | -8.6% | -10.1% | -7.6% |
| 2012-11-28 | beat | 0.39 | 0.41 | +5.7% | +6.1% | +7.1% | +9.6% |
| 2012-08-22 | miss | 0.19 | 0.09 | -52.3% | +2.9% | +6.2% | +7.4% |
| 2012-05-23 | beat | 0.20 | 0.20 | +0.1% | -1.0% | +1.3% | -2.4% |
| 2012-03-07 | miss | 0.35 | 0.35 | -1.3% | +6.1% | +6.2% | +14.0% |
| 2011-11-30 | beat | 0.26 | 0.27 | +2.7% | +7.1% | +3.6% | +8.4% |
Not investment advice.
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