ARModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.6%
Next 1 week
+1.3%
Next 1 month
+3.9%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 28): +3.9% median,
82% of the last 11 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Overbought — RSI(2) at 90
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.00%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 1.66 +4.3% · Seasonal tilt (11y) -0.4%
$39.0B market cap (#260 US)
$258M/day volume
43% volatility
-18% 1-year
-38% from ATH
52-week range · 33% of the way up · -32% from the high
$95.80$181.19
Congressional trades in ARES Full tracker →
4 members · 4 buys / 4 sells · $120K–$325K disclosed · latest filing Apr 14, 2026.
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $50K–$100K | |
| BUY | $50K–$100K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-10-29 (Thursday, before open, in 0 days) · EPS est. 1.25.
1-day std dev
3.5%
Finished up
48%
Biggest pop
+8.0%
Biggest drop
-11.2%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 50 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | beat | 1.27 | 1.29 | +1.4% | +3.5% | +3.2% | +10.3% |
| 2026-05-01 | miss | 1.33 | 1.24 | -6.6% | +2.3% | +1.4% | +7.5% |
| 2026-02-05 | miss | 1.69 | 1.45 | -14.0% | -3.8% | -11.2% | -2.4% |
| 2025-11-03 | beat | 1.14 | 1.19 | +4.0% | +3.8% | +4.6% | +3.1% |
| 2025-08-01 | miss | 1.09 | 1.03 | -5.8% | -3.0% | -1.5% | +1.6% |
| 2025-05-05 | beat | 0.94 | 1.09 | +15.9% | -0.4% | +2.3% | +9.9% |
| 2025-02-05 | miss | 1.30 | 1.23 | -5.2% | -7.3% | -2.9% | -6.4% |
| 2024-11-01 | beat | 0.94 | 0.95 | +0.8% | +1.8% | -3.5% | +1.6% |
| 2024-08-02 | beat | 0.98 | 0.99 | +0.6% | -3.7% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| 2024-05-02 | miss | 0.92 | 0.80 | -13.0% | -2.1% | +2.2% | +8.2% |
| 2024-02-08 | beat | 1.10 | 1.21 | +10.4% | +5.6% | +5.2% | +4.9% |
| 2023-10-31 | miss | 0.87 | 0.83 | -4.2% | -4.8% | -2.8% | +3.4% |
| 2023-08-01 | beat | 0.85 | 0.90 | +5.7% | +0.2% | +3.1% | +1.0% |
| 2023-04-28 | miss | 0.81 | 0.71 | -12.2% | -1.5% | +5.0% | -1.8% |
| 2023-02-09 | beat | 1.08 | 1.21 | +12.2% | +2.3% | -2.5% | -2.4% |
| 2022-10-27 | beat | 0.74 | 0.75 | +1.7% | -0.5% | +2.7% | +6.7% |
| 2022-07-28 | beat | 0.69 | 0.74 | +6.9% | +0.4% | +8.0% | +12.0% |
| 2022-04-28 | miss | 0.67 | 0.65 | -2.6% | +0.6% | +1.0% | -1.5% |
| 2022-02-11 | beat | 0.72 | 0.85 | +18.4% | +2.1% | -0.7% | -4.4% |
| 2021-10-27 | miss | 0.64 | 0.62 | -2.6% | -2.4% | -2.0% | +2.5% |
| 2021-07-29 | beat | 0.52 | 0.64 | +23.3% | -0.5% | +2.6% | +7.2% |
| 2021-04-29 | miss | 0.51 | 0.46 | -10.4% | +0.1% | -3.3% | -4.3% |
| 2021-02-11 | beat | 0.45 | 0.54 | +20.9% | -3.2% | -0.1% | +1.7% |
| 2020-10-28 | beat | 0.43 | 0.48 | +11.2% | -1.9% | -2.1% | +1.0% |
| 2020-08-05 | beat | 0.38 | 0.39 | +3.5% | +0.2% | +0.4% | -0.9% |
| 2020-05-06 | beat | 0.42 | 0.45 | +7.8% | +0.5% | +7.7% | +3.4% |
| 2020-02-13 | beat | 0.51 | 0.67 | +32.5% | +0.0% | +1.2% | -1.7% |
| 2019-10-31 | miss | 0.37 | 0.34 | -7.5% | -1.8% | -0.5% | +8.1% |
| 2019-07-31 | miss | 0.37 | 0.32 | -13.5% | -1.5% | -0.8% | -6.4% |
| 2019-05-02 | miss | 0.37 | 0.35 | -6.6% | +0.0% | -0.9% | +3.0% |
| 2019-02-14 | beat | 0.33 | 0.41 | +24.8% | +1.2% | +3.0% | +9.4% |
| 2018-11-01 | miss | 0.34 | 0.30 | -12.0% | -0.2% | +4.9% | +11.4% |
| 2018-08-02 | miss | 0.40 | 0.34 | -15.7% | +3.1% | +1.7% | +0.5% |
| 2018-05-03 | beat | 0.36 | 0.37 | +3.0% | +0.7% | -1.3% | -2.0% |
| 2018-02-15 | beat | 0.49 | 0.54 | +10.7% | +2.0% | +7.7% | +5.5% |
| 2017-11-03 | beat | 0.39 | 0.40 | +2.3% | +2.2% | +0.8% | +1.1% |
| 2017-08-04 | beat | 0.67 | 0.69 | +3.2% | +1.4% | -0.3% | -1.9% |
| 2017-05-08 | miss | 0.40 | 0.30 | -24.6% | -4.0% | -1.1% | +0.0% |
| 2017-02-24 | beat | 0.39 | 0.44 | +14.0% | +0.9% | +0.9% | -14.3% |
| 2016-11-07 | beat | 0.40 | 0.46 | +16.1% | +1.0% | -1.0% | +9.0% |
| 2016-08-09 | beat | 0.29 | 0.44 | +52.5% | +3.6% | -0.6% | +4.8% |
| 2016-05-10 | miss | 0.22 | 0.08 | -64.2% | -1.0% | -0.4% | -3.5% |
| 2016-02-29 | miss | 0.31 | 0.20 | -35.6% | +1.0% | -1.5% | +4.1% |
| 2015-11-10 | miss | 0.17 | — | -100.0% | -1.7% | -3.0% | -15.0% |
| 2015-08-11 | miss | 0.40 | 0.32 | -19.2% | -2.6% | +0.1% | -2.6% |
| 2015-05-12 | miss | 0.39 | 0.35 | -10.3% | -1.1% | -0.7% | +2.5% |
| 2015-03-05 | miss | 0.36 | 0.27 | -25.9% | -0.6% | -1.7% | -5.4% |
| 2014-11-12 | miss | 0.33 | 0.32 | -3.9% | +0.3% | +3.1% | +3.5% |
| 2014-08-13 | miss | 0.37 | 0.33 | -9.8% | +0.0% | +1.1% | -0.3% |
| 2014-06-10 | beat | 0.33 | 0.34 | +2.5% | -0.3% | -0.7% | -1.3% |
Not investment advice.
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