BYModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.2%
Next 1 week
+0.9%
Next 1 month
+1.3%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Dec 1): +4.1% median,
62% of the last 8 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 31
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.06%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 0.40 +1.0% · Seasonal tilt (8y) +0.3%
$9M/day volume
20% volatility
+43% 1-year
-4% from ATH
52-week range · 89% of the way up · -4% from the high
$26.39$40.03
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2027-01-21 (Thursday, after close, in 81 days) · EPS est. 0.83.
1-day std dev
3.5%
Finished up
58%
Biggest pop
+9.2%
Biggest drop
-9.5%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 38 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | beat | 0.82 | 0.94 | +15.0% | +1.4% | +1.1% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | beat | 0.79 | 0.91 | +15.4% | +2.0% | +2.6% | +4.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | beat | 0.75 | 0.83 | +11.0% | -1.9% | -0.1% | -1.5% |
| 2026-01-22 | beat | 0.72 | 0.76 | +6.0% | -3.2% | -2.4% | +0.7% |
| 2025-10-23 | beat | 0.72 | 0.83 | +15.3% | +5.1% | +5.6% | +0.3% |
| 2025-07-24 | beat | 0.67 | 0.75 | +12.5% | +1.7% | +0.2% | -5.3% |
| 2025-04-24 | beat | 0.62 | 0.65 | +4.3% | -0.9% | -0.2% | +3.0% |
| 2025-01-23 | beat | 0.61 | 0.69 | +13.7% | +1.2% | +2.9% | +3.5% |
| 2024-10-24 | beat | 0.65 | 0.70 | +8.0% | +0.9% | +1.2% | +0.8% |
| 2024-07-25 | beat | 0.63 | 0.68 | +7.9% | +2.6% | +1.4% | -8.5% |
| 2024-04-25 | beat | 0.64 | 0.70 | +10.1% | +0.8% | +3.3% | +10.4% |
| 2024-01-25 | beat | 0.67 | 0.73 | +8.6% | +0.4% | -3.5% | -9.1% |
| 2023-10-26 | beat | 0.63 | 0.77 | +22.2% | +0.7% | -1.7% | +5.7% |
| 2023-07-27 | beat | 0.63 | 0.70 | +12.0% | +4.5% | +9.2% | +9.7% |
| 2023-04-27 | beat | 0.63 | 0.65 | +4.0% | +4.7% | +0.7% | -4.3% |
| 2023-01-26 | beat | 0.59 | 0.67 | +12.9% | +3.6% | +6.3% | +13.2% |
| 2022-10-27 | beat | 0.58 | 0.61 | +5.8% | +2.9% | +2.7% | +0.9% |
| 2022-07-28 | beat | 0.52 | 0.54 | +3.5% | -1.2% | -2.8% | -9.1% |
| 2022-04-28 | beat | 0.47 | 0.58 | +23.4% | -1.3% | -1.2% | -0.7% |
| 2022-01-27 | beat | 0.58 | 0.69 | +19.8% | +0.2% | -1.2% | -1.3% |
| 2021-10-28 | beat | 0.56 | 0.69 | +22.8% | +0.1% | +1.7% | +8.9% |
| 2021-07-29 | beat | 0.46 | 0.77 | +66.5% | +1.8% | +4.4% | +7.3% |
| 2021-04-29 | beat | 0.36 | 0.57 | +57.5% | -1.4% | +3.1% | +6.2% |
| 2021-01-28 | beat | 0.27 | 0.38 | +40.7% | +6.2% | +7.3% | +17.6% |
| 2020-10-22 | beat | 0.21 | 0.34 | +65.0% | +1.3% | +1.4% | -4.9% |
| 2020-07-23 | beat | 0.04 | 0.24 | +531.6% | +2.4% | +3.7% | -0.9% |
| 2020-04-30 | miss | 0.27 | 0.09 | -66.7% | -10.0% | -9.5% | -5.7% |
| 2020-01-23 | beat | 0.38 | 0.42 | +11.1% | +0.3% | -1.6% | -6.2% |
| 2019-10-24 | beat | 0.40 | 0.41 | +1.6% | +0.5% | -1.9% | +0.8% |
| 2019-07-25 | beat | 0.40 | 0.41 | +2.1% | -0.6% | -1.7% | -4.1% |
| 2019-04-25 | beat | 0.34 | 0.38 | +11.8% | +0.9% | +1.0% | +3.5% |
| 2019-01-24 | beat | 0.39 | 0.49 | +25.0% | +0.9% | +3.1% | +8.2% |
| 2018-10-25 | beat | 0.34 | 0.40 | +17.6% | +2.4% | +1.4% | +9.0% |
| 2018-07-26 | beat | 0.28 | 0.32 | +15.0% | +1.6% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| 2018-04-26 | miss | 0.27 | 0.21 | -21.5% | -1.0% | -5.9% | -7.9% |
| 2018-01-25 | beat | 0.23 | 0.24 | +2.7% | +1.2% | +0.3% | -0.4% |
| 2017-10-26 | beat | 0.22 | 0.32 | +47.4% | -0.6% | -2.5% | -3.1% |
| 2017-07-27 | beat | 0.21 | 0.24 | +11.9% | -0.1% | -0.3% | +3.0% |
Posted about BY
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TRACKER - Cathie Wood
long
—
4d ago
ARK bought 25,711 shares of AVAV for ARKX. The trade: 0.47% of that fund, on 27 October 2026 — roughly $3.3m at that day’s close. ARK put the same…
Not investment advice.
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