DFModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.8%
Next 1 week
-11.2%
Next 1 month
+2.3%
Seasonality
Weak window historically
Next 30 days (to Dec 3): -2.8% median,
33% of the last 9 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Deeply oversold — RSI(2) at 5
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +19.11%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 1.08 +2.5% · Seasonal tilt (9y) -0.2%
$68M/day volume
78% volatility
+142% 1-year
-62% from ATH
52-week range · 56% of the way up · -35% from the high
$10.47$49.70
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-09 (Monday, after close, in 6 days) · EPS est. -0.56.
1-day std dev
6.5%
Finished up
45%
Biggest pop
+14.4%
Biggest drop
-7.6%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 22 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | miss | -0.55 | -1.44 | -162.2% | +0.3% | +0.0% | -7.6% |
| 2026-05-07 | miss | -0.49 | -0.71 | -44.0% | -1.5% | -5.0% | -9.5% |
| 2026-02-26 | miss | -0.49 | -0.50 | -2.0% | -1.6% | +0.9% | +2.1% |
| 2025-11-06 | miss | -0.50 | -0.78 | -54.8% | -3.4% | +3.2% | +0.1% |
| 2025-07-31 | miss | -0.36 | -0.50 | -38.3% | -6.4% | -7.2% | +8.4% |
| 2025-05-08 | beat | -0.37 | -0.35 | +4.3% | -1.2% | -2.0% | -0.6% |
| 2025-03-06 | miss | -0.28 | -0.41 | -47.2% | -5.0% | +3.6% | -1.1% |
| 2024-11-07 | beat | -0.26 | -0.18 | +31.6% | +2.3% | +12.9% | +3.2% |
| 2024-08-13 | beat | -0.33 | -0.29 | +13.0% | +5.1% | -3.8% | -9.9% |
| 2024-05-08 | miss | -0.56 | -1.14 | -102.8% | -2.9% | -5.1% | -10.0% |
| 2024-02-28 | miss | -0.48 | -0.59 | -23.6% | -6.1% | -3.8% | +6.8% |
| 2023-11-02 | beat | -0.67 | -0.45 | +32.5% | +2.2% | +14.4% | -7.4% |
| 2023-08-03 | miss | -0.53 | -0.76 | -44.1% | -0.8% | -7.6% | -9.6% |
| 2023-05-04 | miss | -0.44 | -0.65 | -48.9% | -2.5% | -5.8% | -15.5% |
| 2023-03-09 | beat | -0.54 | -0.27 | +49.1% | +2.2% | -5.3% | -8.8% |
| 2022-11-10 | beat | -0.63 | -0.56 | +11.1% | +0.8% | +7.9% | +14.5% |
| 2022-08-11 | beat | -0.75 | -0.60 | +20.0% | +5.4% | +11.7% | +30.3% |
| 2022-05-16 | beat | -0.70 | -0.60 | +14.3% | +2.9% | +2.7% | +1.4% |
| 2022-03-28 | miss | -0.67 | -0.75 | -11.1% | +0.8% | -1.7% | -5.1% |
| 2021-11-12 | miss | -0.55 | -0.90 | -63.6% | +0.9% | +6.2% | -2.7% |
| 2021-08-12 | miss | -0.60 | -1.35 | -125.0% | -1.3% | -1.6% | -16.7% |
| 2020-11-12 | -0.45 | -0.45 | — | +1.1% | +2.0% | +39.8% |
Not investment advice.
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