ESModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.1%
Next 1 week
+0.1%
Next 1 month
+0.2%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 30): +2.8% median,
67% of the last 12 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 56
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.03%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β -0.01 -0.0% · Seasonal tilt +0.2%
$51M/day volume
25% volatility
+12% 1-year
-5% from ATH
52-week range · 78% of the way up · -5% from the high
$55.34$70.37
Congressional trades in ESNT Full tracker →
2 members · 2 buys / 2 sells · $4K–$60K disclosed · latest filing Aug 13, 2025.
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-06 (Friday, before open, in 8 days) · EPS est. 1.87.
1-day std dev
3.6%
Finished up
65%
Biggest pop
+7.4%
Biggest drop
-10.4%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 51 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | beat | 1.76 | 2.08 | +18.4% | +0.1% | +4.9% | +6.2% |
| 2026-05-08 | beat | 1.72 | 1.82 | +6.0% | +3.0% | +2.5% | -1.9% |
| 2026-02-13 | miss | 1.74 | 1.60 | -7.8% | -4.8% | -6.4% | -9.9% |
| 2025-11-07 | miss | 1.77 | 1.67 | -5.8% | -6.3% | +0.5% | +1.1% |
| 2025-08-08 | beat | 1.71 | 1.93 | +13.0% | +2.4% | +5.7% | +8.5% |
| 2025-05-09 | beat | 1.65 | 1.69 | +2.5% | +2.2% | -0.3% | +1.9% |
| 2025-02-14 | miss | 1.65 | 1.58 | -4.3% | -1.9% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 2024-11-01 | miss | 1.74 | 1.65 | -5.3% | -4.2% | -10.4% | -7.9% |
| 2024-08-02 | beat | 1.68 | 1.91 | +13.9% | -2.6% | -2.1% | -2.4% |
| 2024-05-03 | beat | 1.59 | 1.70 | +6.9% | +0.7% | +0.5% | +4.5% |
| 2024-02-09 | beat | 1.59 | 1.64 | +2.9% | +3.2% | -2.2% | -1.0% |
| 2023-11-02 | beat | 1.56 | 1.66 | +6.1% | +0.6% | +0.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-08-04 | beat | 1.49 | 1.61 | +8.1% | +1.1% | +3.2% | +2.4% |
| 2023-05-05 | beat | 1.44 | 1.59 | +10.5% | +3.8% | +3.9% | +5.5% |
| 2023-02-10 | miss | 1.49 | 1.37 | -8.0% | -1.2% | -0.2% | +2.5% |
| 2022-11-04 | beat | 1.51 | 1.66 | +9.9% | -0.7% | -1.3% | +1.6% |
| 2022-08-05 | beat | 1.51 | 2.16 | +43.2% | +1.1% | +0.6% | +2.7% |
| 2022-05-06 | beat | 1.47 | 2.52 | +71.8% | +0.0% | +1.7% | -1.8% |
| 2022-02-11 | beat | 1.40 | 1.55 | +10.6% | +1.3% | +0.4% | -1.3% |
| 2021-11-05 | beat | 1.35 | 1.47 | +9.0% | +5.3% | +2.1% | -1.7% |
| 2021-08-06 | beat | 1.26 | 1.42 | +12.4% | +2.7% | +3.6% | +2.9% |
| 2021-05-07 | miss | 1.21 | 1.21 | -0.2% | +1.8% | +0.6% | -3.8% |
| 2021-02-19 | miss | 1.22 | 1.10 | -10.1% | -5.0% | +1.9% | -5.0% |
| 2020-11-06 | beat | 0.95 | 1.11 | +16.6% | +2.5% | -2.2% | +1.7% |
| 2020-08-07 | miss | 0.39 | 0.15 | -62.0% | -3.2% | -0.7% | +0.4% |
| 2020-05-08 | beat | 1.37 | 1.52 | +10.9% | +9.8% | -3.8% | -7.5% |
| 2020-02-14 | beat | 1.43 | 1.49 | +4.6% | -2.0% | -5.9% | -9.1% |
| 2019-11-08 | beat | 1.38 | 1.47 | +6.7% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +2.1% |
| 2019-08-02 | beat | 1.31 | 1.39 | +6.2% | +1.5% | +0.8% | +3.8% |
| 2019-05-03 | beat | 1.26 | 1.30 | +3.5% | +1.3% | +0.0% | -1.2% |
| 2019-02-08 | beat | 1.19 | 1.31 | +10.5% | +0.9% | +1.3% | +8.4% |
| 2018-11-09 | beat | 1.14 | 1.18 | +3.7% | +4.5% | -3.6% | -2.6% |
| 2018-08-03 | beat | 1.06 | 1.14 | +7.8% | +2.5% | +4.4% | +7.2% |
| 2018-05-04 | beat | 1.03 | 1.13 | +9.3% | -0.4% | +3.6% | +3.1% |
| 2018-02-09 | miss | 0.80 | 0.79 | -0.8% | +1.2% | +1.2% | +8.8% |
| 2017-11-09 | beat | 0.77 | 0.82 | +6.4% | +0.5% | +1.0% | +7.4% |
| 2017-08-04 | beat | 0.70 | 0.77 | +9.8% | +1.0% | +4.3% | -0.5% |
| 2017-05-05 | beat | 0.69 | 0.72 | +4.2% | +0.0% | -2.2% | -0.1% |
| 2017-02-10 | beat | 0.63 | 0.68 | +8.2% | +2.7% | +0.7% | -1.5% |
| 2016-11-04 | beat | 0.58 | 0.65 | +11.1% | +5.7% | +3.4% | +11.3% |
| 2016-08-04 | beat | 0.53 | 0.57 | +7.0% | +4.9% | +5.3% | +8.5% |
| 2016-05-05 | beat | 0.49 | 0.52 | +5.5% | +4.7% | +6.3% | +3.0% |
| 2016-02-12 | beat | 0.47 | 0.48 | +1.7% | +2.9% | +1.4% | +15.2% |
| 2015-11-05 | beat | 0.43 | 0.44 | +1.4% | -0.2% | +1.0% | -1.7% |
| 2015-08-07 | beat | 0.39 | 0.41 | +4.0% | -0.8% | -8.1% | -2.9% |
| 2015-05-08 | beat | 0.35 | 0.38 | +7.7% | +1.9% | +3.3% | +2.5% |
| 2015-02-13 | beat | 0.31 | 0.33 | +7.4% | +1.0% | +0.7% | -3.0% |
| 2014-11-06 | beat | 0.26 | 0.29 | +12.2% | +0.3% | +0.0% | +0.4% |
| 2014-08-08 | beat | 0.21 | 0.23 | +8.7% | +2.7% | +7.4% | +12.1% |
| 2014-05-08 | beat | 0.18 | 0.18 | +0.6% | +3.8% | +4.6% | +2.9% |
| 2014-02-19 | beat | 0.22 | 0.22 | +1.5% | -1.0% | -4.3% | -8.1% |
Not investment advice.
Continue with Google