FAModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.3%
Next 1 week
+1.0%
Next 1 month
+4.7%
Seasonality
Mildly negative window
Next 30 days (to Dec 2): -1.5% median,
50% of the last 12 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 23
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.13%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 2.14 +5.2% · Seasonal tilt -0.5%
$3M/day volume
89% volatility
+55% 1-year
52-week range · 50% of the way up · -36% from the high
$0.95$3.23
Congressional trades in FATE Full tracker →
1 member · 0 buys / 1 sells · $1K–$15K disclosed · latest filing Feb 24, 2023.
| SELL | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-12 (Thursday, before open, in 10 days) · EPS est. -0.25.
1-day std dev
7.2%
Finished up
38%
Biggest pop
+20.2%
Biggest drop
-15.1%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 52 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | beat | -0.26 | -0.25 | +2.6% | +4.0% | -7.4% | -9.9% |
| 2026-05-13 | beat | -0.28 | -0.26 | +5.5% | -2.7% | -4.9% | -18.2% |
| 2026-02-26 | beat | -0.27 | -0.27 | +0.5% | -1.4% | +5.4% | -6.8% |
| 2025-11-13 | beat | -0.28 | -0.27 | +4.3% | +0.0% | -4.8% | -3.8% |
| 2025-08-12 | beat | -0.34 | -0.29 | +15.8% | +1.1% | +20.2% | +20.2% |
| 2025-05-13 | beat | -0.38 | -0.32 | +15.7% | +5.0% | -4.0% | +17.0% |
| 2025-03-05 | miss | -0.42 | -0.44 | -3.8% | +0.0% | +14.3% | +3.3% |
| 2024-11-12 | beat | -0.41 | -0.40 | +3.0% | +2.9% | -8.8% | -6.7% |
| 2024-08-13 | beat | -0.45 | -0.33 | +27.2% | +1.2% | -2.1% | +17.1% |
| 2024-05-09 | miss | -0.45 | -0.47 | -3.9% | -1.3% | +4.6% | +0.0% |
| 2024-02-26 | beat | -0.50 | -0.45 | +9.8% | +8.8% | +7.3% | -0.3% |
| 2023-11-08 | beat | -0.56 | -0.46 | +17.9% | +3.0% | -8.6% | +2.1% |
| 2023-08-08 | beat | -0.58 | -0.54 | +6.6% | -0.8% | -3.7% | -21.0% |
| 2023-05-03 | beat | -0.62 | -0.19 | +69.3% | -5.1% | -2.4% | -16.8% |
| 2023-02-28 | beat | -0.85 | -0.58 | +32.0% | +0.7% | -0.5% | -8.2% |
| 2022-11-03 | beat | -0.87 | -0.86 | +0.7% | +5.5% | +2.0% | +18.0% |
| 2022-08-03 | beat | -0.81 | -0.78 | +4.1% | +2.6% | -0.8% | -0.5% |
| 2022-05-04 | beat | -0.74 | -0.68 | +8.4% | +2.2% | -11.4% | -28.9% |
| 2022-02-28 | miss | -0.66 | -0.72 | -9.8% | +1.8% | -0.4% | -5.2% |
| 2021-11-04 | beat | -0.55 | -0.45 | +18.5% | -0.5% | +3.0% | -6.4% |
| 2021-08-04 | miss | -0.52 | -0.58 | -11.6% | +0.0% | +11.4% | +5.1% |
| 2021-05-05 | miss | -0.43 | -0.44 | -2.8% | -5.4% | -1.5% | -8.0% |
| 2021-02-24 | miss | -0.38 | -0.61 | -61.5% | +2.4% | -9.4% | -12.7% |
| 2020-11-05 | miss | -0.36 | -0.68 | -88.8% | +2.4% | -3.3% | +1.2% |
| 2020-08-05 | miss | -0.29 | -0.35 | -19.5% | -2.6% | +1.8% | +6.6% |
| 2020-05-11 | miss | -0.39 | -0.44 | -12.9% | -3.5% | -4.9% | -4.5% |
| 2020-03-02 | beat | -0.37 | -0.37 | +1.3% | +2.5% | -8.9% | -16.2% |
| 2019-11-05 | miss | -0.37 | -0.40 | -9.0% | -10.6% | -14.8% | -6.3% |
| 2019-08-06 | miss | -0.31 | -0.36 | -16.9% | +2.5% | -6.5% | -9.8% |
| 2019-05-07 | miss | -0.23 | -0.30 | -32.0% | -1.9% | -2.7% | +8.2% |
| 2019-03-05 | miss | -0.24 | -0.25 | -3.0% | +1.4% | -2.1% | +11.2% |
| 2018-11-01 | miss | -0.28 | -0.31 | -12.4% | -4.8% | +8.4% | -5.8% |
| 2018-08-06 | miss | -0.32 | -0.37 | -16.5% | -10.3% | +11.2% | +11.7% |
| 2018-05-10 | miss | -0.22 | -0.27 | -22.7% | -6.3% | -15.1% | -0.9% |
| 2018-03-05 | miss | -0.25 | -0.29 | -16.0% | -8.1% | -5.2% | -12.3% |
| 2017-11-01 | miss | -0.24 | -0.25 | -5.4% | -7.2% | +0.6% | -5.3% |
| 2017-08-14 | beat | -0.23 | -0.23 | +0.9% | +5.2% | +2.9% | -2.9% |
| 2017-05-15 | miss | -0.20 | -0.24 | -22.4% | -2.4% | -1.2% | -11.4% |
| 2017-03-16 | beat | -0.28 | -0.21 | +26.1% | +2.6% | +6.7% | +2.8% |
| 2016-11-07 | beat | -0.28 | -0.27 | +4.1% | +1.5% | +9.6% | +52.3% |
| 2016-08-08 | beat | -0.31 | -0.29 | +5.8% | +2.3% | -3.1% | +3.1% |
| 2016-05-09 | miss | -0.27 | -0.29 | -8.7% | -7.5% | -0.6% | -12.1% |
| 2016-03-03 | beat | -0.26 | -0.26 | +1.9% | +2.7% | +7.7% | -0.5% |
| 2015-11-03 | beat | -0.32 | -0.24 | +24.2% | +6.2% | +5.5% | -3.5% |
| 2015-08-05 | beat | -0.39 | -0.33 | +15.4% | +0.6% | -0.7% | +8.7% |
| 2015-05-07 | miss | -0.36 | -0.38 | -5.6% | -4.5% | +0.4% | -5.4% |
| 2015-03-12 | beat | -0.31 | -0.30 | +4.0% | +2.4% | -0.6% | -2.8% |
| 2014-11-11 | beat | -0.32 | -0.30 | +5.3% | +1.3% | +2.3% | -1.3% |
| 2014-08-12 | beat | -0.35 | -0.30 | +15.5% | -5.0% | -8.2% | -10.3% |
| 2014-05-13 | miss | -0.32 | -0.34 | -5.2% | +0.9% | -0.2% | -5.5% |
| 2014-03-17 | miss | -0.28 | -0.29 | -1.8% | +0.2% | +10.4% | +5.5% |
| 2013-11-13 | miss | -0.28 | -0.30 | -5.1% | -3.7% | -5.8% | -3.1% |
Not investment advice.
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