NVModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
-0.6%
Next 1 week
+1.0%
Next 1 month
+3.8%
Seasonality
Weak window historically
Next 30 days (to Nov 28): -7.4% median,
37% of the last 30 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 76
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.26%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 2.00 +5.2% · Seasonal tilt -1.5%
$106M/day volume
71% volatility
+19% 1-year
52-week range · 57% of the way up · -23% from the high
$6.20$13.39
Congressional trades in NVAX Full tracker →
1 member · 1 buys / 1 sells · $2K–$30K disclosed · latest filing Nov 5, 2020.
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-05 (Thursday, before open, in 7 days) · EPS est. -0.34.
1-day std dev
19.2%
Finished up
42%
Biggest pop
+98.7%
Biggest drop
-29.6%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | beat | -0.38 | -0.32 | +16.6% | +1.7% | +0.5% | +5.7% |
| 2026-05-06 | beat | -0.37 | -0.06 | +83.8% | +5.7% | +15.6% | +14.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | beat | -0.55 | 0.11 | +120.2% | +3.1% | +17.4% | +4.8% |
| 2025-11-06 | beat | -1.13 | -0.47 | +58.0% | -2.1% | -1.3% | -8.2% |
| 2025-08-06 | beat | 0.06 | 0.62 | +1000.3% | +7.1% | +12.6% | +31.5% |
| 2025-05-08 | beat | 0.71 | 2.93 | +313.5% | +20.8% | +11.9% | +5.7% |
| 2025-02-27 | miss | -0.51 | -0.52 | -1.2% | +2.9% | -3.6% | +7.5% |
| 2024-11-12 | miss | -0.75 | -0.76 | -1.9% | -10.7% | -6.1% | -11.2% |
| 2024-08-08 | miss | 1.70 | 0.99 | -41.8% | -16.0% | +9.1% | +18.0% |
| 2024-05-10 | beat | -1.08 | -1.05 | +2.8% | +124.2% | +98.7% | +191.1% |
| 2024-02-28 | miss | -0.35 | -1.44 | -313.4% | -22.9% | -26.7% | -6.8% |
| 2023-11-09 | beat | -2.21 | -1.26 | +43.0% | +1.9% | -1.3% | -14.3% |
| 2023-08-08 | beat | -1.16 | 0.58 | +149.8% | +8.0% | -3.9% | -3.7% |
| 2023-05-09 | beat | -3.42 | -3.41 | +0.3% | +20.4% | +27.8% | +2.6% |
| 2023-02-28 | miss | -1.05 | -2.28 | -117.6% | -26.2% | -25.9% | -25.6% |
| 2022-11-08 | miss | 1.59 | -2.15 | -235.0% | +0.2% | -5.2% | +9.3% |
| 2022-08-08 | miss | 5.18 | -6.53 | -226.0% | -30.2% | -29.6% | -25.1% |
| 2022-05-09 | miss | 2.65 | 2.56 | -3.5% | -21.0% | +1.1% | -2.5% |
| 2022-02-28 | miss | -1.80 | -11.18 | -520.4% | -4.7% | +0.4% | -12.7% |
| 2021-11-04 | miss | -3.55 | -4.31 | -21.5% | -10.8% | -11.3% | -5.3% |
| 2021-08-05 | miss | -3.25 | -4.75 | -46.2% | -15.3% | -19.6% | +8.9% |
| 2021-05-10 | beat | -3.60 | -3.05 | +15.2% | -16.5% | -13.9% | -9.9% |
| 2021-03-01 | miss | -2.24 | -2.70 | -20.7% | -6.1% | -14.3% | -29.3% |
| 2020-11-09 | miss | 1.73 | -3.21 | -285.4% | -5.5% | -12.8% | +2.9% |
| 2020-08-10 | beat | -0.33 | -0.30 | +9.8% | -4.9% | -16.3% | -18.1% |
| 2020-05-11 | beat | -0.67 | -0.58 | +13.9% | +59.3% | +62.5% | +120.0% |
| 2020-03-11 | miss | -1.05 | -1.13 | -7.9% | -9.5% | -11.6% | +10.2% |
| 2019-11-07 | miss | -0.89 | -1.11 | -24.5% | +3.1% | +2.0% | -8.7% |
| 2019-08-07 | miss | -1.59 | -1.69 | -6.4% | -1.5% | -5.4% | +43.3% |
| 2019-05-02 | beat | -2.26 | -2.20 | +2.6% | -3.8% | -11.3% | -38.0% |
| 2019-03-18 | miss | -2.39 | -2.60 | -8.6% | +1.9% | +5.8% | +1.9% |
| 2018-11-07 | beat | -2.52 | -2.40 | +4.8% | -1.5% | -6.6% | -9.6% |
| 2018-08-08 | beat | -2.46 | -2.40 | +2.6% | +3.3% | +21.5% | +6.6% |
| 2018-05-09 | miss | -2.78 | -2.80 | -0.8% | -4.1% | -6.4% | +1.2% |
| 2018-03-14 | miss | -3.11 | -3.20 | -2.8% | -1.9% | -1.4% | -3.3% |
| 2017-11-07 | beat | -3.19 | -3.00 | +5.9% | +0.0% | +1.8% | +3.6% |
| 2017-08-08 | miss | -3.17 | -3.20 | -1.0% | +10.3% | +2.1% | +4.1% |
| 2017-05-08 | beat | -3.47 | -3.20 | +7.8% | +9.6% | +16.4% | +54.8% |
| 2017-02-27 | beat | -4.56 | -4.20 | +7.9% | -8.0% | -7.4% | -12.9% |
| 2016-11-09 | beat | -5.24 | -4.80 | +8.3% | -13.5% | -17.6% | -22.9% |
| 2016-08-09 | miss | -5.08 | -5.80 | -14.2% | -3.2% | -9.8% | -2.8% |
| 2016-05-04 | miss | -5.41 | -5.80 | -7.3% | -1.5% | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| 2016-02-29 | miss | -2.95 | -5.80 | -96.4% | -1.1% | -7.4% | +9.1% |
| 2015-11-09 | miss | -1.90 | -2.40 | -26.3% | -8.6% | -6.2% | -12.4% |
| 2015-08-10 | beat | -1.81 | -1.60 | +11.5% | +10.2% | +24.1% | +20.6% |
| 2015-05-07 | beat | -2.20 | -2.00 | +9.1% | +0.0% | +4.3% | +8.2% |
| 2015-02-26 | miss | -1.80 | -2.60 | -44.4% | -7.1% | -1.7% | -5.5% |
| 2014-11-05 | -1.60 | -1.60 | — | +1.2% | +0.4% | +1.2% | |
| 2014-08-06 | miss | -1.30 | -1.60 | -23.1% | -5.5% | -7.9% | +1.5% |
| 2014-05-07 | beat | -1.60 | -1.40 | +12.5% | -2.7% | -4.7% | +4.2% |
| 2014-03-10 | beat | -1.47 | -1.40 | +4.5% | +7.0% | +0.7% | -8.5% |
| 2013-11-07 | miss | -1.15 | -1.80 | -56.5% | -0.4% | +5.1% | +10.1% |
| 2013-08-08 | miss | -1.13 | -1.60 | -41.2% | -0.4% | -9.2% | +3.8% |
| 2013-05-07 | miss | -1.12 | -1.40 | -25.0% | +4.0% | -8.4% | -4.4% |
| 2013-03-01 | miss | -0.84 | -1.20 | -42.9% | -1.1% | +0.5% | +12.6% |
| 2012-11-02 | -1.00 | -1.00 | — | +0.0% | -4.4% | -16.3% | |
| 2012-08-03 | miss | -0.96 | -1.00 | -4.2% | -1.9% | -0.9% | -1.9% |
| 2012-05-04 | miss | -0.76 | -1.20 | -57.9% | +0.0% | +2.2% | -3.7% |
| 2012-03-09 | beat | -0.77 | -0.60 | +21.7% | +0.0% | -1.5% | +5.3% |
| 2011-11-04 | beat | -1.16 | -0.60 | +48.3% | +0.6% | +0.6% | -1.3% |
Short interest — elevated Full report →
Crowding
56/100
Squeeze risk
67/100
28.9% of float short
4.3 days to cover
shorts +3% last read
72th %ile of its history
as of 2026-10-15
Not investment advice.
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