PAModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.1%
Next 1 week
+0.5%
Next 1 month
+0.0%
Seasonality
Mildly positive window
Next 30 days (to Nov 28): +5.0% median,
55% of the last 11 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 30
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is -0.11%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 0.04 +0.1% · Seasonal tilt (11y) -0.1%
$14.7B market cap (#771 US)
$142M/day volume
48% volatility
+31% 1-year
-53% from ATH
52-week range · 93% of the way up · -4% from the high
$104.90$275.22
Congressional trades in PAYC Full tracker →
6 members · 5 buys / 9 sells · $155K–$550K disclosed · latest filing Aug 5, 2026.
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| BUY | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| BUY | $100K–$250K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-04 (Wednesday, after close, in 6 days) · EPS est. 2.80.
1-day std dev
11.4%
Finished up
60%
Biggest pop
+23.6%
Biggest drop
-38.5%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 50 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | beat | 2.38 | 2.78 | +16.8% | +21.8% | +23.6% | +27.9% |
| 2026-05-06 | beat | 2.99 | 3.15 | +5.4% | +3.7% | +9.6% | +5.7% |
| 2026-02-11 | beat | 2.45 | 2.45 | +0.1% | -10.0% | +0.9% | -3.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | miss | 1.97 | 1.94 | -1.6% | -4.0% | -10.7% | -10.4% |
| 2025-08-06 | beat | 1.78 | 2.06 | +15.6% | +7.0% | +4.5% | -3.3% |
| 2025-05-07 | beat | 2.56 | 2.80 | +9.4% | +6.3% | +9.0% | +12.2% |
| 2025-02-12 | beat | 1.97 | 2.32 | +17.7% | +4.2% | +2.4% | +2.9% |
| 2024-10-30 | beat | 1.61 | 1.67 | +3.7% | +10.1% | +21.4% | +31.9% |
| 2024-07-31 | beat | 1.60 | 1.62 | +1.2% | +4.3% | +0.4% | -4.5% |
| 2024-05-01 | beat | 2.46 | 2.59 | +5.5% | -3.4% | -10.5% | -6.8% |
| 2024-02-07 | beat | 1.78 | 1.93 | +8.5% | -5.1% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| 2023-10-31 | beat | 1.60 | 1.77 | +10.3% | -37.7% | -38.5% | -31.6% |
| 2023-08-01 | beat | 1.60 | 1.62 | +1.3% | -10.3% | -19.2% | -22.6% |
| 2023-05-02 | beat | 2.36 | 2.46 | +4.2% | +0.8% | +1.7% | -5.4% |
| 2023-02-07 | beat | 1.49 | 1.73 | +16.3% | -4.2% | -6.8% | -7.1% |
| 2022-11-01 | beat | 1.18 | 1.27 | +7.6% | +0.1% | -7.7% | -12.6% |
| 2022-08-02 | beat | 1.12 | 1.26 | +12.4% | +3.0% | +4.3% | +11.7% |
| 2022-05-03 | beat | 1.75 | 1.90 | +8.6% | +6.1% | +13.8% | -7.7% |
| 2022-02-08 | beat | 1.08 | 1.11 | +2.5% | +9.3% | +8.9% | +2.8% |
| 2021-11-02 | beat | 0.90 | 0.92 | +1.9% | -2.9% | -7.4% | -11.1% |
| 2021-08-03 | beat | 0.84 | 0.97 | +15.6% | +8.7% | +10.7% | +15.9% |
| 2021-05-04 | beat | 1.42 | 1.47 | +3.8% | +0.1% | -3.7% | -13.8% |
| 2021-02-10 | beat | 0.79 | 0.84 | +5.7% | +0.9% | -4.3% | -6.0% |
| 2020-11-04 | beat | 0.56 | 0.70 | +25.8% | -0.9% | -6.1% | -4.4% |
| 2020-08-04 | miss | 0.62 | 0.62 | -0.5% | -0.2% | +5.8% | +0.8% |
| 2020-04-28 | beat | 1.26 | 1.33 | +5.8% | +1.6% | +14.1% | +7.8% |
| 2020-02-05 | beat | 0.77 | 0.86 | +11.1% | -6.6% | -9.9% | -6.0% |
| 2019-10-29 | beat | 0.67 | 0.70 | +4.0% | -1.0% | +1.8% | +2.1% |
| 2019-07-30 | beat | 0.70 | 0.75 | +7.7% | +6.6% | +5.3% | +1.1% |
| 2019-04-30 | beat | 1.11 | 1.19 | +6.8% | +0.3% | -0.5% | +1.1% |
| 2019-02-05 | beat | 0.56 | 0.61 | +9.9% | +8.3% | +7.8% | +10.3% |
| 2018-10-30 | beat | 0.51 | 0.52 | +1.3% | -3.8% | -3.4% | -1.0% |
| 2018-07-31 | beat | 0.48 | 0.59 | +21.9% | +9.2% | +18.5% | +26.9% |
| 2018-05-01 | beat | 0.90 | 0.95 | +5.8% | -6.8% | -7.3% | -3.2% |
| 2018-02-06 | beat | 0.24 | 0.29 | +21.3% | +0.3% | -2.4% | +6.3% |
| 2017-10-31 | beat | 0.19 | 0.29 | +54.7% | -4.0% | -6.0% | -3.4% |
| 2017-08-01 | beat | 0.20 | 0.26 | +28.2% | +1.8% | -4.3% | -2.3% |
| 2017-05-02 | beat | 0.41 | 0.47 | +13.5% | +4.3% | +4.6% | +6.5% |
| 2017-02-08 | beat | 0.13 | 0.18 | +43.5% | +7.9% | +13.4% | +15.8% |
| 2016-11-01 | beat | 0.12 | 0.15 | +26.8% | -18.3% | -16.0% | -18.6% |
| 2016-08-02 | beat | 0.13 | 0.21 | +60.1% | +3.3% | +7.7% | +5.9% |
| 2016-05-03 | beat | 0.21 | 0.33 | +56.1% | +5.2% | +4.6% | +3.4% |
| 2016-02-09 | beat | 0.08 | 0.10 | +25.6% | +21.5% | +4.8% | +23.6% |
| 2015-11-03 | beat | 0.07 | 0.08 | +15.8% | +13.0% | +16.8% | +11.2% |
| 2015-08-04 | beat | 0.06 | 0.10 | +62.6% | +6.1% | +18.1% | +17.1% |
| 2015-05-06 | beat | 0.08 | 0.12 | +49.2% | +1.5% | +6.9% | +18.7% |
| 2015-02-10 | beat | 0.04 | 0.06 | +41.8% | +7.7% | -0.8% | +5.3% |
| 2014-11-04 | beat | 0.04 | 0.05 | +43.6% | +5.0% | +19.3% | +26.1% |
| 2014-08-05 | beat | 0.04 | 0.04 | +14.3% | +4.6% | +10.7% | +18.1% |
| 2014-05-21 | miss | 0.05 | 0.02 | -60.0% | -0.6% | +9.9% | -4.6% |
Not investment advice.
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