STModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.0%
Next 1 week
+0.6%
Next 1 month
+0.8%
Seasonality
Bullish window historically
Next 30 days (to Dec 1): +1.8% median,
81% of the last 16 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Neutral — RSI(2) at 25
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.00%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β 0.35 +0.8% · Seasonal tilt -0.0%
$76M/day volume
20% volatility
-33% 1-year
-55% from ATH
52-week range · 5% of the way up · -35% from the high
$11.84$18.66
Congressional trades in STWD Full tracker →
2 members · 1 buys / 3 sells · $18K–$95K disclosed · latest filing Aug 13, 2025.
| BUY | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $1K–$15K | |
| SELL | $15K–$50K |
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-06 (Friday, before open, in 6 days) · EPS est. 0.30.
1-day std dev
2.1%
Finished up
62%
Biggest pop
+4.5%
Biggest drop
-5.4%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 60 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | miss | 0.40 | 0.40 | -0.0% | -0.9% | -1.7% | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-08 | miss | 0.42 | 0.39 | -8.1% | -1.1% | -1.7% | -5.6% |
| 2026-02-25 | beat | 0.41 | 0.42 | +1.7% | +0.8% | +0.2% | +2.4% |
| 2025-11-10 | miss | 0.44 | 0.40 | -9.0% | -1.0% | -2.9% | -4.3% |
| 2025-08-07 | beat | 0.38 | 0.43 | +12.6% | +1.2% | +2.0% | +2.7% |
| 2025-05-09 | beat | 0.45 | 0.45 | +0.4% | +1.4% | +0.7% | +6.5% |
| 2025-02-27 | beat | 0.47 | 0.48 | +3.2% | +0.1% | +0.9% | +0.4% |
| 2024-11-06 | beat | 0.47 | 0.48 | +2.0% | +1.7% | -1.4% | -1.2% |
| 2024-08-06 | miss | 0.49 | 0.48 | -1.2% | +0.2% | +2.7% | +3.3% |
| 2024-05-08 | beat | 0.46 | 0.59 | +26.9% | -0.4% | +2.7% | +6.5% |
| 2024-02-22 | beat | 0.48 | 0.58 | +20.9% | +3.2% | +2.5% | +4.8% |
| 2023-11-08 | beat | 0.47 | 0.49 | +3.6% | +0.1% | +4.0% | +9.4% |
| 2023-08-03 | beat | 0.48 | 0.49 | +1.3% | +0.8% | +0.2% | +0.3% |
| 2023-05-04 | miss | 0.50 | 0.49 | -1.4% | -0.1% | -5.4% | -4.4% |
| 2023-03-01 | miss | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.8% | +0.5% | +0.6% | +2.6% |
| 2022-11-09 | miss | 0.52 | 0.51 | -1.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | +0.5% |
| 2022-08-04 | beat | 0.50 | 0.51 | +1.6% | +0.2% | +0.6% | +2.3% |
| 2022-05-04 | beat | 0.51 | 0.76 | +47.9% | +0.6% | +3.0% | -4.2% |
| 2022-02-25 | beat | 0.53 | 1.10 | +109.5% | +1.7% | +2.0% | -0.4% |
| 2021-11-09 | beat | 0.51 | 0.52 | +1.5% | -0.6% | +0.3% | +0.4% |
| 2021-08-05 | miss | 0.51 | 0.51 | -0.8% | -0.4% | +0.2% | +0.1% |
| 2021-05-06 | beat | 0.49 | 0.50 | +2.1% | -0.6% | -1.1% | -3.6% |
| 2021-02-25 | beat | 0.49 | 0.50 | +3.1% | +0.7% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
| 2020-11-05 | beat | 0.47 | 0.50 | +7.1% | +0.7% | +2.2% | +12.5% |
| 2020-08-05 | beat | 0.41 | 0.43 | +4.5% | +0.8% | +2.4% | +9.9% |
| 2020-05-04 | beat | 0.49 | 0.55 | +13.3% | +2.1% | +3.3% | +2.5% |
| 2020-02-25 | miss | 0.53 | 0.47 | -10.9% | -0.8% | -5.4% | -9.5% |
| 2019-11-08 | miss | 0.52 | 0.52 | -0.9% | +0.0% | +0.2% | -0.9% |
| 2019-08-07 | beat | 0.52 | 0.52 | +0.7% | -0.2% | +2.6% | +0.3% |
| 2019-05-08 | miss | 0.52 | 0.28 | -46.1% | -2.1% | -2.5% | -2.0% |
| 2019-02-28 | beat | 0.53 | 0.54 | +1.1% | +0.0% | +1.7% | +1.0% |
| 2018-11-09 | miss | 0.53 | 0.53 | -0.1% | -0.6% | +1.3% | +2.3% |
| 2018-08-08 | beat | 0.53 | 0.54 | +2.6% | -1.3% | -3.7% | -3.4% |
| 2018-05-04 | beat | 0.53 | 0.58 | +10.4% | +0.5% | +2.1% | +2.6% |
| 2018-02-28 | beat | 0.53 | 0.55 | +4.7% | +0.1% | +1.3% | +4.0% |
| 2017-11-08 | beat | 0.54 | 0.65 | +19.3% | +1.0% | +1.1% | +0.3% |
| 2017-08-09 | beat | 0.51 | 0.52 | +2.3% | -0.5% | +2.4% | +1.9% |
| 2017-05-09 | beat | 0.50 | 0.51 | +2.6% | -0.2% | -1.2% | -1.9% |
| 2017-02-23 | beat | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.6% | +0.3% | +0.4% | -0.3% |
| 2016-11-02 | beat | 0.51 | 0.59 | +16.0% | +1.1% | -0.2% | +1.6% |
| 2016-08-04 | miss | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.1% | +0.4% | +2.1% | +3.1% |
| 2016-05-09 | miss | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.6% | +0.0% | +3.3% | +4.0% |
| 2016-02-25 | beat | 0.54 | 0.55 | +2.8% | +0.2% | +3.9% | +4.2% |
| 2015-11-05 | beat | 0.53 | 0.56 | +5.7% | +1.3% | +2.8% | -1.8% |
| 2015-08-04 | miss | 0.53 | 0.53 | -0.1% | -0.4% | +1.6% | +1.9% |
| 2015-05-05 | beat | 0.53 | 0.55 | +4.5% | +0.2% | -0.5% | -1.6% |
| 2015-02-25 | beat | 0.50 | 0.50 | +0.7% | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.5% |
| 2014-11-05 | beat | 0.51 | 0.55 | +7.2% | +0.4% | +0.6% | +2.9% |
| 2014-08-06 | beat | 0.50 | 0.51 | +2.6% | -0.5% | -0.8% | +0.1% |
| 2014-05-06 | beat | 0.54 | 0.60 | +11.5% | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| 2014-02-26 | beat | 0.55 | 0.62 | +12.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | +1.7% |
| 2013-11-07 | beat | 0.54 | 0.61 | +12.5% | +1.2% | -0.5% | +2.0% |
| 2013-08-06 | miss | 0.46 | 0.42 | -9.5% | +0.3% | -0.7% | -1.3% |
| 2013-05-08 | miss | 0.46 | 0.43 | -6.0% | -0.5% | +3.3% | -1.0% |
| 2013-02-27 | beat | 0.42 | 0.48 | +13.6% | +0.0% | +4.5% | +5.2% |
| 2012-11-07 | beat | 0.44 | 0.50 | +14.9% | -0.6% | -1.6% | -7.9% |
| 2012-08-07 | beat | 0.41 | 0.45 | +9.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.4% |
| 2012-05-08 | beat | 0.52 | 0.58 | +12.2% | -0.2% | +0.0% | -1.2% |
| 2012-02-29 | miss | 0.44 | 0.42 | -3.5% | -0.2% | -1.8% | +3.0% |
| 2011-11-04 | miss | 0.43 | 0.42 | -3.3% | -0.2% | -1.1% | -1.1% |
Not investment advice.
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