TAK (Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited) — Congressional Trades, Short Interest & Seasonality

Model view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast

Next 1 day

+0.0%

Next 1 week

+0.1%

Next 1 month

-0.3%

Seasonality

Weak window historically

Next 30 days (to Nov 28): -1.7% median, 40% of the last 15 years finished up.

Mean reversion

Neutral — RSI(2) at 28

RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought. Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.01%/day.

1-month breakdown — Market · β 0.12 +0.3% · Seasonal tilt -0.7%

$63.6B market cap (#299 US) $54M/day volume 21% volatility +42% 1-year -36% from ATH

52-week range · 95% of the way up · -2% from the high

$12.99$20.55

Congressional trades in TAK Full tracker →

4 members · 3 buys / 4 sells · $63K–$245K disclosed · latest filing Sep 5, 2023.

SELL	VF Virginia Foxx · traded Aug 29, 2023	$15K–$50K
SELL	DG Daniel Goldman · traded Jul 10, 2023	$15K–$50K
BUY	VF Virginia Foxx · traded Feb 16, 2023	$1K–$15K
BUY	VF Virginia Foxx · traded Nov 1, 2022	$1K–$15K
SELL	GG Greg Gianforte · traded Sep 11, 2019	$1K–$15K
SELL	NT Nicholas Van Taylor · traded Mar 25, 2019	$15K–$50K
BUY	GG Greg Gianforte · traded Dec 21, 2018	$15K–$50K

Next report 2026-10-29 (Thursday, before open, in 0 days).

1-day std dev

1.5%

Finished up

56%

Biggest pop

+2.1%

Biggest drop

-2.5%

Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 9 reports. History, not a forecast.

Reported		Est.	Actual	Surprise	Gap	Day 1	Day 5
2023-07-27	beat	18.62	28.76	+54.4%	+1.0%	+1.0%	-1.9%
2022-10-27	miss	67.54	20.03	-70.3%	+1.0%	+0.5%	+1.1%
2022-07-28	miss	59.27	33.97	-42.7%	-0.1%	+0.8%	-5.2%
2021-10-28	miss	97.00	-5.13	-105.3%	+2.0%	+2.1%	+4.2%
2021-07-30	miss	95.00	64.00	-32.6%	-0.6%	-2.5%	-3.7%
2021-05-11	miss	88.00	63.08	-28.3%	-0.7%	-1.5%	+1.7%
2021-02-04	miss	105.00	29.78	-71.6%	+0.9%	-1.3%	+0.6%
2020-10-29	miss	103.00	1.38	-98.7%	+3.1%	-0.9%	+4.8%
2020-07-31	miss	85.00	26.35	-69.0%	+1.6%	+0.2%	-0.1%