TM (Toyota Motor Corporation) — Congressional Trades, Short Interest & Seasonality

Model view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast

Next 1 day

-0.0%

Next 1 week

+0.8%

Next 1 month

+1.2%

Seasonality

Bullish window historically

Next 30 days (to Nov 28): +1.1% median, 62% of the last 45 years finished up.

Mean reversion

Oversold — RSI(2) at 16

RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought. Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.01%/day.

1-month breakdown — Market · β 0.82 +2.1% · Seasonal tilt -1.0%

$254.6B market cap (#36 US) $58M/day volume 26% volatility -7% 1-year -24% from ATH

52-week range · 35% of the way up · -22% from the high

$166.10$248.90

Congressional trades in TM Full tracker →

10 members · 7 buys / 12 sells · $188K–$695K disclosed · latest filing Jul 21, 2026.

BUY	AA Alan Armstrong · traded Mar 30, 2026	$15K–$50K
SELL	LM Lisa McClain · traded Oct 14, 2025	$1K–$15K
BUY	LM Lisa McClain · traded Aug 13, 2025	$1K–$15K
SELL	LM Lisa McClain · traded Jun 24, 2025	$1K–$15K
BUY	LM Lisa McClain · traded Jun 17, 2025	$1K–$15K
SELL	BW Bruce Westerman · traded Apr 21, 2025	$1K–$15K
BUY	BW Bruce Westerman · traded Mar 3, 2025	$1K–$15K
SELL	DG Daniel Goldman · traded Jul 10, 2023	$100K–$250K
SELL	DG Daniel Goldman · traded Feb 27, 2023	$1K–$15K
SELL	JR John Rutherford · traded Mar 16, 2022	$1K–$15K
SELL	JR John Rutherford · traded Feb 17, 2022	$1K–$15K
SELL	SC Steve Cohen · traded Mar 26, 2020	$1K–$15K
BUY	GG Greg Gianforte · traded Mar 18, 2020	$15K–$50K
BUY	GG Greg Gianforte · traded Dec 21, 2018	$1K–$15K
SELL	WC William Cassidy · traded Mar 31, 2016	$15K–$50K
SELL	WC William Cassidy · traded Mar 31, 2016	$15K–$50K
BUY	SC Steve Cohen · traded Aug 25, 2015	$1K–$15K
SELL	TM Thomas MacArthur · traded Jan 27, 2015	$15K–$50K
SELL	RH Rubén Hinojosa · traded Jan 24, 2014	$1K–$15K

Next report 2026-11-05 (Thursday, before open, in 8 days) · EPS est. 2.74.

1-day std dev

2.2%

Finished up

63%

Biggest pop

+5.2%

Biggest drop

-2.3%

Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 19 reports. History, not a forecast.

Reported		Est.	Actual	Surprise	Gap	Day 1	Day 5
2026-08-04	beat	3.94	7.66	+94.6%	+0.7%	+1.6%	+2.0%
2026-05-08	beat	2.69	4.00	+49.0%	-0.5%	-0.8%	+0.9%
2026-02-06	beat	3.18	6.15	+93.1%	+3.2%	+3.0%	+4.7%
2025-11-05	miss	5.36	4.66	-13.1%	-1.9%	-2.3%	+1.7%
2025-08-06	miss	5.48	4.38	-20.0%	-1.2%	-1.4%	+4.6%
2014-02-03	beat	2.46	3.27	+32.8%	-0.8%	-0.2%	+4.6%
2013-11-06	beat	2.15	2.81	+30.5%	+1.4%	+0.5%	-0.7%
2013-08-09	beat	2.59	3.69	+42.4%	+0.7%	+0.6%	+0.5%
2013-05-08	beat	1.71	2.01	+17.6%	+1.4%	+3.1%	+9.1%
2013-02-05	miss	1.32	0.68	-48.5%	+1.7%	+1.1%	+7.2%
2012-11-05	beat	1.66	2.03	+22.1%	+3.2%	+4.6%	-0.1%
2012-08-03	beat	1.93	2.33	+21.2%	+4.0%	+5.2%	+5.8%
2012-05-09	beat	0.88	0.96	+9.2%	+1.3%	+3.0%	-1.9%
2012-02-07	beat	0.12	0.67	+448.2%	+1.8%	+1.8%	+3.7%
2011-11-07	miss	0.66	0.66	-0.5%	-3.0%	-1.3%	-2.4%
2011-08-02	beat	-0.74	0.01	+101.3%	-0.5%	-0.6%	-5.6%
2011-05-11	miss	0.41	0.20	-50.6%	+0.0%	+0.5%	+0.5%
2011-02-08	beat	0.60	0.73	+21.6%	+2.1%	+4.0%	+9.2%
2010-11-05	miss	1.27	0.77	-39.1%	+1.5%	-0.1%	+3.8%