UAModel view — historical tendencies for the days ahead, not a forecast
Next 1 day
+0.3%
Next 1 week
-0.5%
Next 1 month
-1.8%
Seasonality
Mildly negative window
Next 30 days (to Nov 29): -0.9% median,
50% of the last 14 years finished up.
20-year seasonality chart →
Mean reversion
Overbought — RSI(2) at 85
RSI(2) under 15 is oversold (this name has historically bounced); over 85 is overbought.
Its dip-buy edge in history is +0.22%/day.
Mean-reversion stats →
1-month breakdown —
Market · β -0.60 -1.7% · Seasonal tilt -0.1%
$2M/day volume
41% volatility
+37% 1-year
-59% from ATH
52-week range · 72% of the way up · -10% from the high
$91.44$139.50
Earnings Full history →
Next report 2026-11-03 (Tuesday, before open, in 5 days).
1-day std dev
5.2%
Finished up
54%
Biggest pop
+11.4%
Biggest drop
-13.5%
Standard deviation of the close-to-close move over the last 39 reports. History, not a forecast.
| Reported | Est. | Actual | Surprise | Gap | Day 1 | Day 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-02 | beat | -3.42 | 3.28 | +195.9% | +1.2% | +1.5% | -3.0% |
| 2020-11-02 | beat | -3.30 | -1.70 | +48.5% | -11.9% | -3.0% | +4.5% |
| 2020-08-03 | miss | -0.10 | -3.70 | -3600.0% | -18.9% | -13.5% | -13.5% |
| 2020-05-06 | beat | -2.10 | -1.80 | +14.3% | +8.4% | +6.0% | +8.4% |
| 2020-02-19 | miss | -1.40 | -2.20 | -57.1% | -1.6% | +4.3% | -22.0% |
| 2019-10-23 | miss | -1.70 | -2.00 | -17.6% | -0.3% | -0.3% | -6.5% |
| 2019-07-24 | beat | -1.30 | 1.69 | +229.8% | +5.0% | +4.2% | +5.2% |
| 2019-04-24 | beat | -0.90 | -0.50 | +44.4% | +1.4% | +3.4% | +2.3% |
| 2019-02-20 | miss | 0.20 | -0.12 | -160.5% | +1.8% | +4.9% | +4.4% |
| 2018-10-24 | miss | -1.00 | -1.20 | -20.0% | +1.4% | +9.5% | +7.8% |
| 2018-07-25 | beat | -2.40 | -0.89 | +62.8% | +0.0% | +1.9% | -1.9% |
| 2018-04-26 | miss | -1.30 | -1.70 | -30.8% | -4.2% | -2.3% | -6.5% |
| 2018-02-22 | miss | -1.40 | -2.42 | -72.8% | -1.7% | -4.3% | +2.0% |
| 2017-11-01 | miss | -1.00 | -2.67 | -166.6% | -4.8% | -3.1% | -5.3% |
| 2017-07-27 | beat | -0.40 | -0.30 | +25.0% | -4.2% | -6.9% | -9.8% |
| 2017-04-27 | miss | -0.20 | -0.90 | -350.0% | +1.1% | +4.9% | -3.8% |
| 2017-02-16 | miss | -0.40 | -1.30 | -224.5% | -2.0% | -3.3% | -11.0% |
| 2016-10-27 | beat | -1.90 | -1.31 | +31.3% | -7.4% | +6.1% | -12.8% |
| 2016-07-28 | miss | 2.10 | 0.70 | -66.7% | -2.5% | -6.9% | -14.5% |
| 2016-04-28 | beat | 2.00 | 2.50 | +25.0% | +1.7% | +5.9% | +1.0% |
| 2016-02-18 | beat | 1.60 | 2.60 | +62.5% | +14.6% | +11.4% | +20.8% |
| 2015-10-29 | miss | 0.27 | -0.74 | -368.6% | -10.9% | -5.4% | -11.0% |
| 2015-07-30 | beat | 2.81 | 3.75 | +33.2% | +1.7% | +2.8% | -11.1% |
| 2015-04-30 | beat | 3.20 | 4.10 | +28.0% | +3.0% | +7.4% | +4.0% |
| 2015-02-19 | beat | 2.32 | 3.40 | +46.4% | +3.1% | +7.1% | +9.8% |
| 2014-10-30 | miss | 2.21 | 1.70 | -23.0% | +0.3% | -0.5% | -2.9% |
| 2014-07-31 | miss | 3.82 | 2.30 | -39.8% | -2.8% | -7.4% | -12.2% |
| 2014-05-01 | miss | 3.33 | 2.90 | -12.9% | -1.3% | -2.1% | -6.9% |
| 2014-02-20 | beat | 3.26 | 3.80 | +16.7% | +5.4% | +5.9% | +11.2% |
| 2013-11-01 | beat | 2.57 | 2.70 | +5.1% | +0.2% | +3.3% | +0.5% |
| 2013-08-01 | miss | 5.23 | 4.80 | -8.2% | +0.0% | +1.4% | -12.0% |
| 2013-05-01 | beat | 4.69 | 4.90 | +4.4% | +1.3% | +3.2% | +0.0% |
| 2013-02-27 | beat | 1.78 | 2.72 | +53.2% | +1.2% | +4.0% | +2.3% |
| 2012-11-05 | beat | 4.08 | 4.30 | +5.5% | +0.0% | -1.6% | -10.0% |
| 2012-08-01 | beat | 4.40 | 4.80 | +9.1% | -0.1% | -1.4% | -2.7% |
| 2012-05-01 | miss | 4.45 | 4.10 | -7.9% | -1.2% | -0.7% | -15.8% |
| 2012-02-22 | beat | 5.43 | 5.60 | +3.2% | +0.5% | -2.6% | -7.9% |
| 2011-10-31 | miss | 5.03 | 5.00 | -0.5% | -1.2% | +0.2% | -6.1% |
| 2011-08-03 | miss | 4.85 | 4.20 | -13.4% | -1.5% | -3.1% | +1.2% |
Not investment advice.
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