AA chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.7% | -3.5% | 5.9% | 20% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | +0.1% | 2.7% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +0.7% | +1.5% | 3.0% | 70% |
| 5-day | -2.2% | -2.8% | 7.1% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 miss | 2.19 | 2.12 | -3.2% | -0.7% | -6.1% | +0.6% | +17.6% |
| 2026-04-16 miss | 1.55 | 1.40 | -9.6% | -7.6% | -6.8% | +0.6% | -4.6% |
| 2026-01-22 beat | 1.01 | 1.26 | +24.7% | -3.7% | -1.5% | -8.7% | -1.3% |
| 2025-10-22 beat | -0.05 | -0.02 | +63.0% | +5.7% | +12.6% | -8.4% | -9.5% |
| 2025-07-16 beat | 0.39 | 0.39 | +1.1% | +2.0% | +2.9% | +8.4% | +6.4% |
| 2025-04-16 beat | 1.41 | 2.15 | +52.9% | -5.1% | -7.0% | +10.2% | +26.1% |
| 2025-01-22 beat | 1.01 | 1.04 | +2.8% | -3.0% | -3.7% | -4.9% | -6.2% |
| 2024-10-16 beat | 0.30 | 0.57 | +92.2% | +1.7% | -4.1% | +4.1% | +9.1% |
| 2024-07-17 beat | 0.09 | 0.16 | +84.6% | -0.3% | -3.2% | -7.7% | -9.9% |
| 2024-04-17 miss | -0.44 | -0.81 | -86.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | +1.3% | +16.2% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.