AFG chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.1% | +1.0% | 4.1% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +1.1% | +0.5% | 1.8% | 70% |
| Day 3 | +0.6% | +0.6% | 1.5% | 60% |
| 5-day | +2.2% | +2.3% | 6.3% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 2.37 | 2.82 | +18.9% | +2.8% | +4.4% | -1.3% | -1.6% |
| 2026-04-29 miss | 2.56 | 2.47 | -3.4% | -2.5% | +3.0% | -1.2% | -3.8% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 3.32 | 3.65 | +10.1% | -2.1% | -3.1% | +2.1% | +3.6% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 2.51 | 2.69 | +7.2% | +1.4% | +2.8% | +5.1% | -1.9% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 2.10 | 2.14 | +1.7% | -1.2% | +2.7% | +4.8% | +8.6% |
| 2025-05-06 miss | 2.08 | 1.84 | -11.5% | -4.6% | -6.1% | +0.0% | +2.6% |
| 2025-02-04 beat | 3.01 | 3.12 | +3.7% | -3.0% | -6.2% | -2.0% | -0.3% |
| 2024-11-05 miss | 2.46 | 2.31 | -6.2% | +4.1% | +5.0% | +7.5% | +6.9% |
| 2024-08-06 beat | 2.44 | 2.56 | +5.0% | -0.8% | -0.7% | +3.4% | +8.6% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 2.73 | 2.76 | +1.0% | +0.9% | -0.8% | +2.7% | +0.9% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.