AFL chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.3% | +0.5% | 3.4% | 57% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | +0.0% | 1.3% | 48% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | +0.2% | 1.4% | 55% |
| 5-day | +0.7% | +1.0% | 3.9% | 62% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 miss | 1.76 | 1.75 | -0.5% | +0.0% | -1.6% | -2.5% | -7.6% |
| 2026-04-29 miss | 1.80 | 1.75 | -2.5% | -3.4% | -2.2% | -0.1% | -1.4% |
| 2026-02-04 miss | 1.69 | 1.57 | -7.3% | -1.0% | +3.4% | -1.4% | -6.2% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 1.78 | 2.49 | +40.2% | +1.8% | +2.2% | +3.0% | -1.8% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 1.71 | 1.78 | +4.3% | +2.6% | +3.4% | +3.3% | +4.5% |
| 2025-04-30 miss | 1.67 | 1.66 | -0.8% | -2.9% | -4.7% | +2.7% | +0.3% |
| 2025-02-05 miss | 1.62 | 1.56 | -3.5% | -0.9% | -3.9% | +1.0% | +3.6% |
| 2024-10-30 beat | 1.68 | 2.16 | +28.3% | -2.6% | -4.8% | +2.5% | +6.3% |
| 2024-07-31 beat | 1.60 | 1.83 | +14.5% | +9.4% | +6.6% | -0.8% | +8.6% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 1.58 | 1.66 | +5.2% | -1.0% | -0.6% | +1.6% | +5.8% |
| 2024-01-31 miss | 1.45 | 1.25 | -14.0% | -6.5% | -9.7% | +2.5% | +4.6% |
| 2023-11-01 beat | 1.49 | 1.84 | +23.6% | +0.0% | +3.4% | -1.0% | +1.2% |
| 2023-08-01 beat | 1.44 | 1.58 | +10.1% | +3.2% | +5.7% | -0.7% | -2.2% |
| 2023-04-26 beat | 1.40 | 1.55 | +10.7% | +0.3% | +6.2% | -3.8% | -7.2% |
| 2023-02-01 beat | 1.21 | 1.29 | +6.4% | +0.4% | -6.0% | +1.1% | -1.0% |
| 2022-10-31 miss | 1.21 | 1.15 | -5.3% | -0.2% | +2.6% | +1.8% | +7.6% |
| 2022-08-01 beat | 1.28 | 1.46 | +14.2% | +3.0% | +3.6% | +2.9% | +1.2% |
| 2022-04-27 beat | 1.37 | 1.42 | +4.0% | -0.5% | -2.6% | -2.1% | +1.9% |
| 2022-02-02 beat | 1.26 | 1.33 | +5.4% | +0.0% | +0.1% | +2.8% | -7.4% |
| 2021-10-27 beat | 1.32 | 1.56 | +18.2% | -0.3% | -1.1% | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| 2021-07-28 beat | 1.28 | 1.59 | +24.5% | +3.5% | +3.4% | -0.1% | +2.7% |
| 2021-04-28 beat | 1.21 | 1.51 | +24.6% | +1.1% | +1.3% | +3.6% | +4.5% |
| 2021-02-03 beat | 1.04 | 1.05 | +0.5% | +0.4% | -0.3% | +2.5% | +11.0% |
| 2020-10-27 beat | 1.14 | 1.39 | +22.3% | +1.4% | -3.4% | +7.0% | +32.6% |
| 2020-07-28 beat | 1.05 | 1.28 | +21.4% | +0.1% | +0.6% | -2.6% | +1.0% |
| 2020-04-29 beat | 1.10 | 1.21 | +9.8% | -5.2% | -5.0% | -3.7% | -0.7% |
| 2020-02-04 beat | 1.02 | 1.03 | +1.4% | +0.9% | +2.1% | -1.7% | -23.5% |
| 2019-10-24 beat | 1.07 | 1.16 | +8.7% | +0.1% | +1.3% | +0.7% | +2.0% |
| 2019-07-25 beat | 1.07 | 1.13 | +5.4% | +0.1% | +0.2% | -2.5% | -9.2% |
| 2019-04-25 beat | 1.06 | 1.12 | +5.7% | +0.5% | +0.7% | +1.9% | +3.6% |
| 2019-01-31 beat | 0.94 | 1.02 | +8.2% | +0.2% | +0.5% | +0.5% | +2.5% |
| 2018-10-24 beat | 0.99 | 1.03 | +3.8% | +0.9% | -1.2% | +1.6% | +5.7% |
| 2018-07-26 beat | 0.99 | 1.07 | +8.1% | +3.6% | +4.3% | +0.6% | +1.4% |
| 2018-04-25 beat | 0.97 | 1.05 | +8.0% | +0.2% | +0.6% | -2.7% | -0.7% |
| 2018-01-31 beat | 0.78 | 0.80 | +3.1% | +0.4% | +1.7% | -7.2% | -1.6% |
| 2017-10-25 beat | 0.81 | 0.85 | +4.3% | +1.1% | -0.5% | +0.9% | +2.2% |
| 2017-07-27 beat | 0.82 | 0.92 | +12.0% | +0.5% | +2.9% | +2.2% | +1.8% |
| 2017-04-27 beat | 0.81 | 0.84 | +3.1% | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.7% | +0.3% |
| 2017-01-31 miss | 0.81 | 0.77 | -5.4% | -1.4% | -4.1% | +3.7% | +7.6% |
| 2016-10-27 beat | 0.87 | 0.91 | +4.5% | +0.4% | -2.4% | +0.1% | +4.0% |
| 2016-07-28 beat | 0.84 | 0.86 | +1.6% | -2.0% | -1.4% | +1.1% | +2.0% |
| 2016-04-26 beat | 0.81 | 0.87 | +6.2% | -0.1% | +1.9% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 2016-02-01 beat | 0.74 | 0.78 | +5.3% | +0.4% | +1.4% | +1.1% | +6.5% |
| 2015-10-27 beat | 0.74 | 0.78 | +5.3% | -0.2% | +1.3% | +0.3% | +2.1% |
| 2015-07-28 miss | 0.76 | 0.75 | -1.6% | -0.2% | +3.5% | -0.7% | -9.2% |
| 2015-04-28 miss | 0.77 | 0.77 | -0.2% | -2.1% | -0.9% | -0.5% | -2.6% |
| 2015-02-03 beat | 0.64 | 0.65 | +0.4% | +1.6% | +2.7% | +1.9% | +2.4% |
| 2014-10-28 beat | 0.71 | 0.76 | +5.7% | +1.2% | +0.6% | -0.2% | -0.3% |
| 2014-07-29 beat | 0.80 | 0.83 | +4.2% | -2.8% | -2.8% | -3.8% | -0.2% |
| 2014-04-29 beat | 0.79 | 0.85 | +6.6% | -2.1% | -1.0% | -0.2% | -2.4% |
| 2014-02-04 beat | 0.69 | 0.70 | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.5% | +1.6% | +6.2% |
| 2013-10-29 miss | 0.74 | 0.74 | -0.2% | -3.5% | -3.0% | -0.3% | +2.1% |
| 2013-07-30 beat | 0.75 | 0.81 | +7.5% | -0.1% | +1.4% | -0.6% | -6.1% |
| 2013-04-24 beat | 0.81 | 0.85 | +4.1% | -0.6% | +2.0% | +4.5% | +4.5% |
| 2013-02-05 beat | 0.74 | 0.74 | +0.0% | -3.7% | -4.3% | -4.9% | -2.0% |
| 2012-10-23 beat | 0.83 | 0.89 | +6.4% | -0.1% | -0.4% | +2.4% | +4.2% |
| 2012-07-24 miss | 0.81 | 0.81 | -0.3% | +0.7% | -1.7% | +6.1% | +10.7% |
| 2012-04-24 beat | 0.82 | 0.87 | +5.7% | +5.4% | +7.8% | -0.6% | -12.3% |
| 2012-01-31 miss | 0.75 | 0.74 | -1.7% | -0.1% | +0.1% | +2.3% | -2.4% |
| 2011-10-26 beat | 0.80 | 0.83 | +3.9% | +6.8% | +8.7% | -2.3% | -12.9% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.