AIG chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.1% | +1.4% | 3.7% | 65% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | -0.1% | 1.7% | 45% |
| Day 3 | -0.2% | -0.4% | 1.3% | 40% |
| 5-day | +0.8% | +1.2% | 4.3% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 beat | 1.93 | 2.00 | +3.7% | -1.0% | -1.5% | -2.7% | -5.2% |
| 2026-04-30 beat | 1.88 | 2.11 | +12.0% | +4.3% | +5.3% | -3.1% | -6.3% |
| 2026-02-10 beat | 1.90 | 1.96 | +3.0% | +1.4% | +4.6% | +1.4% | -2.2% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 1.71 | 2.20 | +28.5% | +1.6% | -5.4% | +2.2% | +0.9% |
| 2025-08-06 beat | 1.69 | 1.98 | +17.2% | -1.5% | -3.1% | +4.8% | +2.8% |
| 2025-05-01 beat | 0.97 | 1.16 | +20.2% | -0.3% | +3.5% | -1.5% | +2.3% |
| 2025-02-11 beat | 1.23 | 1.30 | +6.0% | -0.9% | +1.2% | -0.8% | +8.2% |
| 2024-11-04 miss | 1.30 | 0.71 | -45.2% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -0.7% | +1.0% |
| 2024-07-31 miss | 1.30 | 1.16 | -10.9% | -3.5% | -5.5% | -3.7% | +2.9% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 1.59 | 1.74 | +9.7% | +3.2% | +3.0% | +2.3% | +0.3% |
| 2024-02-13 beat | 1.64 | 1.79 | +9.2% | +3.0% | -1.3% | +2.5% | +10.3% |
| 2023-11-01 beat | 1.48 | 1.61 | +8.7% | +1.5% | +3.7% | -2.3% | +2.5% |
| 2023-08-01 beat | 1.58 | 1.75 | +10.8% | +0.0% | +1.5% | -1.5% | -4.5% |
| 2023-05-04 beat | 1.42 | 1.63 | +14.5% | +8.6% | +7.8% | -2.4% | +4.0% |
| 2023-02-15 beat | 1.28 | 1.36 | +6.3% | -0.4% | +0.5% | -3.2% | -21.4% |
| 2022-11-01 beat | 0.52 | 0.66 | +26.8% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +2.1% | +9.5% |
| 2022-08-08 beat | 1.14 | 1.19 | +3.9% | +1.0% | +2.4% | +7.0% | +1.5% |
| 2022-05-03 beat | 1.17 | 1.30 | +11.2% | +0.9% | +7.4% | -8.3% | -10.4% |
| 2022-02-16 beat | 1.18 | 1.58 | +33.4% | -0.6% | +1.7% | +2.9% | +0.6% |
| 2021-11-04 beat | 0.89 | 0.97 | +9.6% | +2.7% | -2.4% | -1.3% | -6.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.