AIG chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.1% | +0.8% | 4.3% | 55% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | +0.4% | 2.7% | 55% |
| Day 3 | +0.3% | +0.0% | 1.9% | 50% |
| 5-day | +1.2% | +1.3% | 5.2% | 58% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 beat | 1.93 | 2.00 | +3.7% | -1.0% | -1.5% | -2.7% | -5.2% |
| 2026-04-30 beat | 1.88 | 2.11 | +12.0% | +4.3% | +5.3% | -3.1% | -6.3% |
| 2026-02-10 beat | 1.90 | 1.96 | +3.0% | +1.4% | +4.6% | +1.4% | -2.2% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 1.71 | 2.20 | +28.5% | +1.6% | -5.4% | +2.2% | +0.9% |
| 2025-08-06 beat | 1.69 | 1.98 | +17.2% | -1.5% | -3.1% | +4.8% | +2.8% |
| 2025-05-01 beat | 0.97 | 1.16 | +20.2% | -0.3% | +3.5% | -1.5% | +2.3% |
| 2025-02-11 beat | 1.23 | 1.30 | +6.0% | -0.9% | +1.2% | -0.8% | +8.2% |
| 2024-11-04 miss | 1.30 | 0.71 | -45.2% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -0.7% | +1.0% |
| 2024-07-31 miss | 1.30 | 1.16 | -10.9% | -3.5% | -5.5% | -3.7% | +2.9% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 1.59 | 1.74 | +9.7% | +3.2% | +3.0% | +2.3% | +0.3% |
| 2024-02-13 beat | 1.64 | 1.79 | +9.2% | +3.0% | -1.3% | +2.5% | +10.3% |
| 2023-11-01 beat | 1.48 | 1.61 | +8.7% | +1.5% | +3.7% | -2.3% | +2.5% |
| 2023-08-01 beat | 1.58 | 1.75 | +10.8% | +0.0% | +1.5% | -1.5% | -4.5% |
| 2023-05-04 beat | 1.42 | 1.63 | +14.5% | +8.6% | +7.8% | -2.4% | +4.0% |
| 2023-02-15 beat | 1.28 | 1.36 | +6.3% | -0.4% | +0.5% | -3.2% | -21.4% |
| 2022-11-01 beat | 0.52 | 0.66 | +26.8% | +0.4% | +0.4% | +2.1% | +9.5% |
| 2022-08-08 beat | 1.14 | 1.19 | +3.9% | +1.0% | +2.4% | +7.0% | +1.5% |
| 2022-05-03 beat | 1.17 | 1.30 | +11.2% | +0.9% | +7.4% | -8.3% | -10.4% |
| 2022-02-16 beat | 1.18 | 1.58 | +33.4% | -0.6% | +1.7% | +2.9% | +0.6% |
| 2021-11-04 beat | 0.89 | 0.97 | +9.6% | +2.7% | -2.4% | -1.3% | -6.4% |
| 2021-08-05 beat | 1.20 | 1.52 | +26.7% | +3.3% | +4.7% | +7.2% | +7.3% |
| 2021-05-06 beat | 0.98 | 1.05 | +7.4% | +0.0% | +2.0% | +1.4% | +4.0% |
| 2021-02-16 beat | 0.93 | 0.94 | +1.2% | -2.1% | +2.7% | +5.0% | +10.5% |
| 2020-11-05 beat | 0.55 | 0.81 | +46.0% | +1.8% | -0.8% | +12.5% | +19.2% |
| 2020-08-03 beat | 0.56 | 0.66 | +18.0% | -3.4% | -7.5% | +7.6% | +0.4% |
| 2020-05-04 miss | 0.82 | 0.11 | -86.5% | +2.7% | +4.1% | +5.9% | +40.5% |
| 2020-02-13 beat | 1.01 | 1.03 | +2.5% | +2.7% | -6.2% | -4.6% | -54.3% |
| 2019-11-01 miss | 1.00 | 0.56 | -44.2% | -1.8% | +1.5% | +4.0% | -4.8% |
| 2019-08-07 beat | 1.16 | 1.43 | +23.6% | +4.6% | +4.4% | -5.4% | -2.5% |
| 2019-05-06 beat | 1.06 | 1.58 | +49.5% | +7.7% | +6.8% | +2.3% | +6.5% |
| 2019-02-13 miss | 0.45 | -0.63 | -240.6% | -4.7% | -9.0% | +6.7% | +10.2% |
| 2018-10-31 miss | 0.07 | -0.34 | -572.4% | +5.0% | +4.4% | +2.6% | +0.1% |
| 2018-08-02 miss | 1.21 | 1.05 | -13.2% | -3.7% | -2.7% | -2.7% | -0.5% |
| 2018-05-02 miss | 1.26 | 1.04 | -17.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% | +1.6% | +3.5% |
| 2018-02-08 miss | 0.75 | 0.57 | -23.9% | +5.3% | +3.3% | -1.2% | -7.1% |
| 2017-11-02 miss | -0.79 | -1.22 | -55.0% | -4.4% | -4.6% | +0.1% | -4.0% |
| 2017-08-02 beat | 1.20 | 1.53 | +28.0% | +0.3% | +0.2% | -4.6% | -8.1% |
| 2017-05-03 beat | 1.07 | 1.36 | +26.7% | +2.2% | +1.8% | -1.4% | +1.9% |
| 2017-02-14 miss | -0.57 | -2.72 | -381.0% | -6.5% | -9.0% | +5.2% | +2.6% |
| 2016-11-02 miss | 1.21 | 1.00 | -17.1% | -4.0% | -4.0% | +8.7% | +10.4% |
| 2016-08-02 beat | 0.94 | 0.98 | +4.3% | +5.1% | +7.3% | +1.5% | +2.3% |
| 2016-05-02 miss | 1.00 | 0.65 | -34.8% | -2.7% | -1.1% | +0.7% | +3.4% |
| 2016-02-11 miss | -0.93 | -1.10 | -17.9% | +2.4% | +4.9% | -1.7% | +0.0% |
| 2015-11-02 miss | 1.01 | 0.52 | -48.8% | -4.0% | -4.4% | +0.6% | +2.3% |
| 2015-08-03 beat | 1.22 | 1.39 | +14.1% | -0.7% | -2.8% | +1.6% | -5.2% |
| 2015-04-30 beat | 1.19 | 1.22 | +2.6% | +1.1% | +2.6% | +3.3% | +3.4% |
| 2015-02-12 miss | 1.05 | 0.97 | -7.2% | -2.5% | +2.9% | +1.1% | +3.4% |
| 2014-11-03 beat | 1.09 | 1.21 | +11.1% | +0.0% | -0.7% | +1.8% | +3.3% |
| 2014-08-04 beat | 1.05 | 1.25 | +19.5% | +1.7% | -0.9% | +2.2% | +5.8% |
| 2014-05-05 beat | 1.06 | 1.21 | +13.9% | -2.0% | -4.1% | +6.8% | +8.7% |
| 2014-02-13 beat | 0.97 | 1.15 | +18.5% | -1.4% | -1.2% | +1.0% | +1.6% |
| 2013-10-31 beat | 0.96 | 0.96 | +0.2% | -5.8% | -6.5% | +0.5% | +0.8% |
| 2013-08-01 beat | 0.86 | 1.12 | +30.7% | +5.1% | +2.7% | -0.6% | -1.4% |
| 2013-05-02 beat | 0.88 | 1.34 | +52.2% | +3.6% | +5.7% | -0.8% | -0.9% |
| 2013-02-21 beat | -0.07 | 0.20 | +399.4% | +5.4% | +3.1% | -1.6% | -2.0% |
| 2012-11-01 beat | 0.89 | 1.00 | +12.7% | -3.6% | -7.2% | -1.6% | +2.0% |
| 2012-08-02 beat | 0.60 | 1.06 | +76.9% | +1.4% | +1.6% | +4.0% | +10.3% |
| 2012-05-03 beat | 1.40 | 1.65 | +17.6% | -3.7% | -3.8% | -3.3% | -12.7% |
| 2012-02-23 beat | 0.65 | 0.82 | +25.7% | +6.5% | +1.5% | +4.9% | +2.3% |
| 2011-11-03 miss | -0.31 | -1.60 | -410.2% | -4.7% | -2.9% | -0.3% | +0.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.