ARM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +2.6% | -1.6% | 16.4% | 42% |
| Day 2 | -1.2% | -1.9% | 5.5% | 25% |
| Day 3 | +3.9% | +1.1% | 8.6% | 58% |
| 5-day | +6.5% | +6.2% | 25.5% | 58% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 beat | 0.40 | 0.45 | +11.4% | +14.7% | +7.4% | +18.7% | -1.0% |
| 2026-05-05 beat | 0.58 | 0.60 | +3.6% | +11.1% | +13.6% | -6.8% | +44.5% |
| 2026-02-04 beat | 0.41 | 0.43 | +5.1% | -0.4% | +5.7% | +10.2% | +6.1% |
| 2025-11-05 beat | 0.33 | 0.39 | +17.7% | +4.3% | -1.2% | -11.3% | -11.7% |
| 2025-07-30 miss | 0.35 | 0.35 | -0.3% | -9.2% | -13.4% | -4.1% | -2.2% |
| 2025-05-07 beat | 0.52 | 0.55 | +5.0% | -4.0% | -6.2% | +14.2% | +19.0% |
| 2025-02-05 beat | 0.34 | 0.39 | +14.0% | -6.5% | -3.3% | -1.6% | -30.5% |
| 2024-11-07 beat | 0.26 | 0.30 | +17.1% | -1.3% | -2.1% | -12.7% | -6.9% |
| 2024-07-31 beat | 0.35 | 0.40 | +15.4% | -10.7% | -15.7% | -2.5% | +9.4% |
| 2024-05-08 beat | 0.31 | 0.36 | +17.7% | -6.4% | -2.3% | +10.3% | +35.1% |
| 2024-02-07 beat | 0.25 | 0.29 | +16.4% | +22.6% | +47.9% | +17.4% | +11.3% |
| 2023-11-09 beat | 0.27 | 0.36 | +34.6% | +0.8% | +1.3% | +5.2% | +23.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.