BGFV chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -3.2% | -7.0% | 12.6% | 31% |
| Day 2 | -0.1% | +0.3% | 5.5% | 59% |
| Day 3 | +0.9% | +0.7% | 3.9% | 55% |
| 5-day | -2.3% | -5.5% | 17.3% | 34% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-27 miss | -0.39 | -0.43 | -10.3% | -5.3% | -9.5% | -14.9% | -26.4% |
| 2023-10-31 miss | 0.16 | 0.08 | -49.7% | -19.4% | -22.5% | -2.6% | +13.7% |
| 2023-08-01 beat | -0.03 | -0.01 | +66.7% | -5.1% | -13.4% | +3.1% | -2.2% |
| 2023-05-02 miss | 0.03 | 0.01 | -66.7% | -6.0% | -4.3% | +8.0% | +7.2% |
| 2023-02-28 beat | 0.07 | 0.08 | +14.3% | +4.6% | -0.3% | +0.2% | -15.0% |
| 2022-11-01 beat | 0.27 | 0.29 | +7.4% | -6.4% | -6.9% | -1.3% | +0.4% |
| 2022-08-02 miss | 0.46 | 0.44 | -4.3% | -7.5% | -5.4% | +1.5% | -0.4% |
| 2022-05-03 beat | 0.37 | 0.41 | +10.8% | -8.7% | -5.5% | -13.3% | -18.7% |
| 2022-03-01 beat | 0.85 | 0.89 | +4.7% | -2.7% | +9.5% | -2.7% | +1.5% |
| 2021-11-02 miss | 1.13 | 1.07 | -5.3% | -6.2% | +14.6% | +21.6% | -33.5% |
| 2021-08-03 beat | 1.08 | 1.63 | +50.9% | +1.4% | -9.4% | +13.7% | +39.4% |
| 2021-05-04 beat | 0.50 | 0.90 | +80.0% | +11.8% | +31.1% | +11.7% | +22.3% |
| 2021-03-02 beat | 0.90 | 0.95 | +5.6% | +3.7% | -7.0% | +8.5% | +20.4% |
| 2020-10-27 beat | 1.10 | 1.31 | +19.1% | -11.3% | -7.4% | +6.4% | +35.2% |
| 2020-07-29 beat | -0.03 | 0.52 | +2177.5% | -4.7% | -14.0% | +9.9% | +11.5% |
| 2019-04-30 beat | 0.08 | 0.10 | +31.8% | +3.8% | -9.5% | -1.7% | -16.0% |
| 2019-02-26 beat | -0.16 | -0.16 | +1.1% | +2.1% | -17.3% | -0.5% | -15.5% |
| 2018-10-30 miss | 0.19 | 0.15 | -21.4% | -9.7% | -17.2% | +2.6% | +5.1% |
| 2018-07-31 miss | 0.11 | -0.01 | -109.4% | -14.7% | -8.1% | -4.7% | -3.9% |
| 2018-05-01 beat | -0.14 | -0.05 | +64.4% | +2.9% | +4.0% | -15.6% | -10.6% |
| 2018-02-27 miss | -0.10 | -0.10 | -3.5% | -5.9% | +3.4% | +4.9% | +17.9% |
| 2017-10-31 miss | 0.28 | 0.28 | -1.4% | +15.0% | +14.2% | -14.5% | -1.7% |
| 2017-08-01 miss | 0.19 | 0.13 | -31.4% | -16.0% | -7.8% | -6.9% | -24.3% |
| 2017-05-02 beat | 0.14 | 0.24 | +65.5% | +7.2% | -7.9% | -1.4% | -5.8% |
| 2017-02-28 beat | 0.34 | 0.37 | +7.9% | +16.7% | +13.0% | +0.0% | +1.0% |
| 2016-11-01 beat | 0.29 | 0.41 | +40.5% | +3.4% | +4.7% | +8.9% | +7.4% |
| 2016-08-02 beat | 0.02 | 0.11 | +356.8% | +12.6% | +18.1% | +5.4% | +3.6% |
| 2016-05-03 miss | 0.02 | -0.02 | -200.0% | -16.0% | -21.7% | -5.9% | -10.2% |
| 2016-03-01 beat | 0.18 | 0.22 | +22.2% | -15.3% | -10.4% | -0.2% | -5.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.