EBR chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.6% | +0.5% | 4.2% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +1.6% | +0.9% | 4.8% | 60% |
| Day 3 | +0.5% | +0.2% | 2.1% | 50% |
| 5-day | +3.4% | +3.7% | 9.9% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
Each report's EPS vs. the same ticker's report ~1 year earlier. Skips any comparison where the prior-year EPS was zero or negative -- a swing from a loss to a profit is real, but "growth %" on a negative base isn't a meaningful number.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-05 miss | 0.12 | 0.12 | -1.4% | +1.5% | +3.8% | +16.7% | +18.8% |
| 2025-05-14 miss | 0.16 | -0.01 | -104.1% | -4.7% | -4.3% | +0.1% | +4.0% |
| 2025-03-13 miss | 0.09 | 0.05 | -42.1% | -0.1% | +2.6% | +4.1% | +2.6% |
| 2024-11-06 beat | 0.16 | 0.60 | +272.6% | +1.9% | -1.2% | -3.1% | -7.0% |
| 2024-08-07 miss | 0.18 | 0.05 | -71.2% | +1.4% | +2.8% | +7.5% | +8.8% |
| 2022-03-17 miss | 0.13 | 0.07 | -44.1% | -1.0% | +2.1% | +11.1% | +26.9% |
| 2021-11-15 beat | 0.10 | 0.42 | +313.2% | -3.7% | -4.0% | -5.7% | -7.3% |
| 2021-08-11 beat | 0.16 | 0.55 | +246.2% | +0.0% | -2.5% | -5.6% | -3.5% |
| 2021-05-11 beat | 0.04 | 0.40 | +891.3% | -1.8% | -8.8% | +14.2% | +24.6% |
| 2021-03-25 beat | 0.05 | 0.45 | +831.2% | +0.9% | +3.4% | -0.3% | +14.7% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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