ES chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 1.7% | 43% |
| Day 2 | +0.1% | +0.3% | 1.2% | 58% |
| Day 3 | -0.3% | -0.2% | 1.2% | 43% |
| 5-day | -0.2% | -0.6% | 2.9% | 40% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 miss | 0.87 | 0.87 | -0.3% | -2.5% | -3.0% | +1.0% | -2.0% |
| 2026-05-06 beat | 1.63 | 1.73 | +6.2% | -1.2% | -2.2% | +2.6% | +1.6% |
| 2026-02-12 beat | 1.10 | 1.12 | +1.6% | +1.5% | +4.3% | +2.1% | -1.3% |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 1.15 | 1.19 | +3.6% | +0.2% | -1.2% | +1.0% | -8.5% |
| 2025-07-31 beat | 0.95 | 0.96 | +1.0% | +0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -2.8% |
| 2025-05-01 miss | 1.51 | 1.50 | -0.7% | -0.5% | -0.4% | +7.1% | +10.9% |
| 2025-02-11 beat | 0.99 | 1.01 | +1.7% | -2.3% | -2.8% | +6.1% | +2.8% |
| 2024-11-04 beat | 1.08 | 1.13 | +4.3% | -0.6% | -2.1% | -2.4% | -0.7% |
| 2024-07-31 miss | 0.96 | 0.95 | -1.5% | -0.9% | +1.8% | -1.8% | +2.2% |
| 2024-05-01 beat | 1.47 | 1.49 | +1.1% | +1.6% | -1.4% | +1.7% | -1.8% |
| 2024-02-13 miss | 0.97 | 0.95 | -2.4% | +6.4% | +4.7% | +1.8% | +3.3% |
| 2023-11-06 miss | 0.98 | 0.97 | -1.3% | -1.1% | +2.0% | -6.2% | +7.1% |
| 2023-07-31 beat | 0.91 | 1.00 | +9.8% | -0.5% | -2.7% | -4.8% | -8.4% |
| 2023-05-03 beat | 1.34 | 1.41 | +5.0% | -0.1% | +0.1% | -0.6% | -8.1% |
| 2023-02-13 miss | 0.94 | 0.92 | -2.5% | +1.2% | -1.7% | -0.6% | -2.6% |
| 2022-11-02 miss | 1.04 | 1.01 | -3.2% | -1.2% | -0.1% | +3.8% | +9.8% |
| 2022-07-28 beat | 0.84 | 0.86 | +2.5% | -1.4% | +0.0% | +2.4% | +4.2% |
| 2022-05-04 beat | 1.19 | 1.30 | +8.9% | -0.3% | +1.4% | -1.0% | +2.7% |
| 2022-02-16 miss | 0.92 | 0.91 | -1.1% | -1.5% | +0.8% | -0.6% | +2.7% |
| 2021-11-02 miss | 1.05 | 1.02 | -3.0% | +0.8% | +0.0% | -0.9% | +0.9% |
| 2021-07-29 miss | 0.80 | 0.79 | -1.2% | +0.5% | -0.1% | +3.1% | +5.5% |
| 2021-05-10 beat | 1.08 | 1.15 | +6.1% | +0.2% | +1.6% | -1.6% | -3.4% |
| 2021-02-16 beat | 0.85 | 0.85 | +0.3% | +0.1% | -1.8% | -2.7% | -1.2% |
| 2020-11-03 beat | 1.01 | 1.02 | +0.7% | +1.0% | -0.8% | +3.4% | -6.3% |
| 2020-07-30 miss | 0.77 | 0.76 | -1.8% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -1.2% | -4.8% |
| 2020-05-06 beat | 1.01 | 1.02 | +1.1% | +3.5% | +1.8% | -0.5% | +13.0% |
| 2020-02-19 miss | 0.78 | 0.76 | -2.0% | +2.9% | +1.4% | -6.4% | -28.6% |
| 2019-11-05 beat | 0.95 | 0.98 | +2.6% | +0.0% | +0.4% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
| 2019-07-31 miss | 0.75 | 0.74 | -1.4% | -0.2% | +0.9% | +2.4% | +4.7% |
| 2019-05-01 beat | 0.92 | 0.97 | +6.0% | +1.4% | +0.5% | -1.5% | +4.6% |
| 2019-02-20 miss | 0.76 | 0.73 | -4.5% | -0.4% | +0.4% | -1.0% | +1.6% |
| 2018-11-01 beat | 0.90 | 0.93 | +3.5% | +1.4% | -0.8% | +4.7% | +10.9% |
| 2018-07-31 beat | 0.75 | 0.76 | +1.2% | -1.5% | -1.6% | +2.0% | +4.9% |
| 2018-05-02 miss | 0.85 | 0.85 | -0.5% | -0.9% | -1.4% | -1.6% | -5.7% |
| 2018-02-22 miss | 0.75 | 0.75 | -0.2% | +0.2% | +3.5% | -4.0% | -3.3% |
| 2017-11-01 miss | 0.84 | 0.82 | -1.9% | +0.7% | +0.9% | +2.3% | +3.6% |
| 2017-07-27 beat | 0.67 | 0.72 | +7.0% | -0.1% | -0.3% | +1.7% | +4.5% |
| 2017-05-03 miss | 0.82 | 0.82 | -0.3% | -1.7% | +0.6% | +0.0% | +4.7% |
| 2017-02-21 miss | 0.74 | 0.72 | -2.6% | -1.0% | +1.3% | +1.0% | +3.6% |
| 2016-11-01 beat | 0.81 | 0.83 | +3.0% | -0.4% | -1.2% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 2016-07-28 miss | 0.65 | 0.64 | -1.4% | +0.3% | +0.9% | -3.0% | -7.0% |
| 2016-05-04 miss | 0.78 | 0.77 | -1.6% | -3.3% | -0.2% | +0.4% | -2.8% |
| 2016-02-04 miss | 0.63 | 0.60 | -4.1% | -0.9% | -0.5% | -2.1% | +3.7% |
| 2015-11-02 miss | 0.76 | 0.75 | -1.6% | -1.7% | +1.0% | -2.1% | -4.1% |
| 2015-07-30 beat | 0.56 | 0.66 | +17.6% | +1.6% | +1.9% | +0.2% | -5.0% |
| 2015-04-29 beat | 0.80 | 0.81 | +1.0% | -1.2% | -2.5% | -1.7% | +0.9% |
| 2015-02-11 beat | 0.68 | 0.72 | +5.3% | +0.2% | -1.9% | +0.5% | -4.9% |
| 2014-11-06 beat | 0.74 | 0.75 | +0.9% | +0.4% | +2.4% | -3.7% | +3.0% |
| 2014-07-31 beat | 0.51 | 0.52 | +2.1% | -0.2% | -0.3% | -0.7% | +3.8% |
| 2014-05-01 beat | 0.75 | 0.76 | +0.7% | -1.9% | -2.5% | -0.5% | -1.4% |
| 2014-02-06 miss | 0.59 | 0.57 | -2.7% | +0.0% | -0.6% | +4.2% | +1.5% |
| 2013-10-31 miss | 0.73 | 0.69 | -5.2% | +0.0% | -0.9% | -0.5% | -3.6% |
| 2013-07-29 beat | 0.51 | 0.55 | +7.2% | +0.2% | +1.2% | -2.0% | -7.7% |
| 2013-05-01 beat | 0.65 | 0.73 | +12.0% | +0.6% | +0.7% | -3.8% | -7.6% |
| 2013-02-19 miss | 0.60 | 0.56 | -6.9% | -0.9% | -0.6% | +0.3% | +3.5% |
| 2012-11-01 beat | 0.68 | 0.70 | +3.1% | +0.7% | +0.4% | -3.2% | -2.4% |
| 2012-07-30 miss | 0.46 | 0.45 | -1.2% | -0.3% | -1.7% | -1.0% | -5.2% |
| 2012-05-02 miss | 0.67 | 0.56 | -16.2% | +0.0% | -3.3% | +1.8% | +1.1% |
| 2012-02-23 beat | 0.69 | 0.74 | +7.5% | +0.6% | +0.3% | +0.6% | +3.6% |
| 2011-11-04 miss | 0.54 | 0.51 | -6.3% | -0.2% | -0.7% | +0.1% | -0.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.