IBM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.0% | +0.2% | 6.7% | 50% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | -0.3% | 2.2% | 35% |
| Day 3 | +0.3% | +0.2% | 1.3% | 55% |
| 5-day | +0.2% | +1.8% | 7.8% | 55% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 miss | 2.93 | 2.93 | -0.1% | -1.5% | +0.4% | +7.3% | +14.0% |
| 2026-04-22 beat | 1.81 | 1.91 | +5.5% | -7.8% | -8.3% | +0.0% | +9.8% |
| 2026-01-28 beat | 4.29 | 4.52 | +5.3% | +8.1% | +5.1% | -6.3% | -22.6% |
| 2025-10-22 beat | 2.45 | 2.65 | +8.3% | -7.8% | -0.9% | +8.8% | +4.4% |
| 2025-07-23 beat | 2.65 | 2.80 | +5.5% | -7.4% | -7.6% | -2.8% | -7.1% |
| 2025-04-23 beat | 1.43 | 1.60 | +12.1% | -5.8% | -6.6% | +4.5% | +12.8% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 3.78 | 3.92 | +3.8% | +9.3% | +13.0% | -1.9% | -3.1% |
| 2024-10-23 beat | 2.23 | 2.30 | +3.3% | -5.1% | -6.2% | -5.3% | +2.1% |
| 2024-07-24 beat | 2.17 | 2.43 | +11.9% | +1.5% | +4.3% | -1.2% | +2.1% |
| 2024-04-24 beat | 1.60 | 1.68 | +5.2% | -8.6% | -8.3% | -2.5% | +1.2% |
| 2024-01-24 beat | 3.80 | 3.87 | +1.9% | +6.3% | +9.5% | -1.9% | -3.3% |
| 2023-10-25 beat | 2.13 | 2.20 | +3.5% | +3.7% | +4.9% | +2.3% | +8.2% |
| 2023-07-19 beat | 2.00 | 2.18 | +8.9% | +1.3% | +2.1% | +3.3% | +2.2% |
| 2023-04-19 beat | 1.24 | 1.36 | +9.7% | +3.0% | +0.0% | +0.5% | +0.7% |
| 2023-01-25 miss | 3.61 | 3.60 | -0.3% | -2.3% | -4.5% | +1.4% | -2.9% |
| 2022-10-19 beat | 1.80 | 1.81 | +0.7% | +3.1% | +4.7% | +5.0% | +15.1% |
| 2022-07-18 beat | 2.29 | 2.31 | +0.9% | -4.7% | -5.2% | -2.1% | +5.3% |
| 2022-04-19 miss | 1.42 | 1.40 | -1.5% | +4.5% | +7.1% | -2.4% | -6.3% |
| 2022-01-24 beat | 3.29 | 3.35 | +1.9% | +0.2% | +5.7% | -0.4% | -10.4% |
| 2021-10-20 beat | 2.51 | 2.52 | +0.2% | -5.9% | -9.6% | -1.9% | -5.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.