LLY chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.7% | +3.5% | 7.3% | 60% |
| Day 2 | +0.4% | +0.8% | 2.9% | 60% |
| Day 3 | +0.7% | +0.5% | 1.9% | 55% |
| 5-day | +3.9% | +4.2% | 10.2% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 beat | 6.58 | 8.38 | +27.3% | +5.2% | +4.9% | +4.3% | -0.9% |
| 2026-04-30 beat | 6.79 | 8.55 | +25.9% | +5.6% | +9.8% | +4.3% | +15.8% |
| 2026-02-04 beat | 6.91 | 7.54 | +9.1% | +7.1% | +10.3% | -8.3% | -10.5% |
| 2025-10-30 beat | 5.89 | 7.02 | +19.1% | +2.9% | +3.8% | +11.0% | +25.3% |
| 2025-08-07 beat | 5.59 | 6.31 | +12.9% | -9.5% | -14.1% | +6.8% | +15.3% |
| 2025-05-01 miss | 3.46 | 3.34 | -3.4% | -6.1% | -11.7% | -5.4% | -5.9% |
| 2025-02-06 beat | 5.07 | 5.32 | +5.0% | -0.3% | +3.3% | +0.2% | -4.7% |
| 2024-10-30 miss | 1.47 | 1.18 | -19.5% | -11.6% | -6.3% | -8.3% | -6.1% |
| 2024-08-08 beat | 2.77 | 3.92 | +41.7% | +13.3% | +9.5% | +10.2% | +7.4% |
| 2024-04-30 beat | 2.49 | 2.58 | +3.7% | +5.1% | +6.0% | -0.4% | +4.3% |
| 2024-02-06 beat | 2.37 | 2.49 | +5.1% | +5.1% | -0.2% | +5.4% | +10.7% |
| 2023-11-02 beat | -0.12 | 0.10 | +181.5% | +4.3% | +4.7% | +1.9% | +0.9% |
| 2023-08-08 beat | 1.99 | 2.11 | +5.9% | +11.4% | +14.9% | +4.8% | +9.9% |
| 2023-04-27 miss | 1.73 | 1.62 | -6.3% | +4.0% | +3.7% | +9.8% | +9.1% |
| 2023-02-02 beat | 1.83 | 2.09 | +14.1% | -2.5% | -3.5% | +3.4% | -3.6% |
| 2022-11-01 beat | 1.94 | 1.98 | +2.1% | -4.5% | -2.6% | +4.0% | +5.0% |
| 2022-08-04 miss | 1.70 | 1.25 | -26.3% | -1.2% | -2.6% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 2022-04-28 beat | 2.29 | 2.62 | +14.4% | +3.8% | +4.3% | -1.6% | +8.8% |
| 2022-02-03 miss | 2.51 | 2.49 | -0.7% | -1.3% | -2.4% | -2.1% | +6.9% |
| 2021-10-26 miss | 1.96 | 1.94 | -1.2% | -0.2% | +1.4% | +3.4% | +5.5% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.