MCD chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +1.2% | +1.4% | 2.2% | 60% |
| Day 2 | +0.1% | -0.2% | 1.7% | 50% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | -0.1% | 0.9% | 40% |
| 5-day | +1.9% | +2.0% | 3.1% | 70% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | 3.32 | 3.38 | +1.8% | +1.9% | +1.2% | +2.2% | -2.8% |
| 2026-05-07 beat | 2.74 | 2.83 | +3.1% | +1.3% | -0.1% | -3.1% | -2.1% |
| 2026-02-11 beat | 3.05 | 3.12 | +2.2% | +2.0% | +2.7% | -0.9% | -1.6% |
| 2025-11-05 miss | 3.33 | 3.22 | -3.4% | +0.1% | +2.2% | +0.4% | +1.8% |
| 2025-08-06 beat | 3.15 | 3.19 | +1.4% | +2.8% | +3.0% | -0.8% | +2.2% |
| 2025-05-01 miss | 2.67 | 2.67 | -0.0% | -2.0% | -1.9% | +0.0% | -0.3% |
| 2025-02-10 miss | 2.86 | 2.83 | -1.0% | +2.7% | +4.8% | -1.2% | -2.9% |
| 2024-10-29 beat | 3.20 | 3.23 | +0.9% | +0.3% | -0.6% | +0.8% | +0.0% |
| 2024-07-29 miss | 3.07 | 2.97 | -3.2% | +0.6% | +3.7% | +2.7% | +10.8% |
| 2024-04-30 miss | 2.73 | 2.70 | -0.9% | -3.4% | -0.2% | -2.0% | -7.7% |
| 2024-02-05 beat | 2.83 | 2.95 | +4.4% | -3.4% | -3.7% | +1.2% | +2.4% |
| 2023-10-30 beat | 2.99 | 3.19 | +6.5% | +1.7% | +1.7% | +3.4% | +7.8% |
| 2023-07-27 beat | 2.79 | 3.17 | +13.7% | +0.1% | +1.2% | -1.4% | -3.6% |
| 2023-04-25 beat | 2.34 | 2.63 | +12.6% | +0.6% | -0.6% | +2.3% | -1.9% |
| 2023-01-31 beat | 2.46 | 2.59 | +5.2% | -2.1% | -1.3% | +0.0% | +0.1% |
| 2022-10-27 beat | 2.58 | 2.68 | +3.9% | +2.5% | +3.3% | +3.0% | +2.9% |
| 2022-07-26 beat | 2.47 | 2.55 | +3.4% | -0.3% | +2.7% | +1.5% | +1.5% |
| 2022-04-28 beat | 2.18 | 2.28 | +4.7% | +1.1% | +2.9% | -2.1% | -0.9% |
| 2022-01-27 miss | 2.34 | 2.23 | -4.8% | -0.1% | -0.4% | +4.8% | -1.6% |
| 2021-10-27 beat | 2.47 | 2.76 | +11.9% | +2.0% | +2.7% | +3.2% | +3.0% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.