MFG chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +2.4% | +2.1% | 2.9% | 80% |
| Day 2 | -1.2% | -1.5% | 2.0% | 30% |
| Day 3 | -0.6% | +0.1% | 4.0% | 50% |
| 5-day | +2.7% | +3.2% | 7.8% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 beat | 0.17 | 0.22 | +28.3% | -0.5% | +5.5% | +3.3% | +2.8% |
| 2026-05-15 beat | 0.07 | 0.12 | +63.1% | -3.0% | -1.9% | +7.2% | +12.3% |
| 2026-02-02 beat | 0.14 | 0.17 | +22.0% | +0.3% | +2.4% | +10.9% | -7.1% |
| 2025-11-14 beat | 0.17 | 0.21 | +24.8% | +1.2% | +3.8% | -6.2% | +4.7% |
| 2025-07-31 beat | 0.15 | 0.16 | +6.0% | +1.2% | +0.2% | +4.1% | +11.9% |
| 2025-05-15 beat | — | 0.02 | +389.5% | -1.0% | -0.2% | +2.5% | +5.0% |
| 2025-02-03 beat | 0.10 | 0.15 | +43.3% | +0.9% | +1.8% | -2.2% | +3.0% |
| 2024-11-14 beat | 0.11 | 0.14 | +27.2% | +2.7% | +5.3% | +5.5% | +4.6% |
| 2024-07-31 beat | 0.11 | 0.15 | +36.8% | +6.9% | +6.9% | -18.8% | -9.3% |
| 2023-07-31 beat | 0.09 | 0.14 | +58.8% | +0.6% | +0.3% | -2.3% | -4.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.