MRK chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -0.5% | -0.7% | 3.6% | 47% |
| Day 2 | +0.2% | -0.1% | 1.4% | 43% |
| Day 3 | -0.4% | -0.2% | 1.4% | 37% |
| 5-day | -0.8% | +0.0% | 5.2% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 beat | -0.26 | -0.13 | +49.4% | +0.5% | +0.2% | +1.9% | +18.5% |
| 2026-04-30 beat | -1.47 | -1.28 | +13.2% | -1.5% | -1.6% | +2.9% | +5.5% |
| 2026-02-03 beat | 2.01 | 2.04 | +1.5% | -1.5% | +2.2% | +1.1% | +0.2% |
| 2025-10-30 beat | 2.35 | 2.58 | +9.8% | -2.3% | -0.3% | -0.6% | +18.0% |
| 2025-07-29 beat | 2.03 | 2.13 | +5.0% | -5.0% | -1.7% | -2.2% | +1.7% |
| 2025-04-24 beat | 2.14 | 2.22 | +4.0% | -0.6% | +1.4% | +4.3% | -2.8% |
| 2025-02-04 beat | 1.67 | 1.72 | +3.3% | -10.8% | -9.1% | -4.6% | +3.6% |
| 2024-10-31 beat | 1.57 | 1.57 | +0.0% | -3.7% | -2.4% | -1.1% | -1.7% |
| 2024-07-30 beat | 2.14 | 2.28 | +6.3% | -3.4% | -9.8% | -3.6% | +1.9% |
| 2024-04-25 beat | 1.92 | 2.07 | +7.7% | +2.1% | +2.9% | -1.9% | -0.9% |
| 2024-02-01 beat | -0.11 | 0.03 | +127.5% | +2.4% | +4.6% | +0.2% | -1.8% |
| 2023-10-26 beat | 1.95 | 2.13 | +9.5% | -0.5% | +1.9% | -2.6% | -3.9% |
| 2023-08-01 beat | -2.18 | -2.06 | +5.4% | +2.8% | -1.3% | +1.1% | +4.7% |
| 2023-04-27 beat | 1.34 | 1.40 | +4.8% | +1.0% | +1.5% | +1.9% | -3.6% |
| 2023-02-02 beat | 1.54 | 1.62 | +5.4% | -2.8% | -3.3% | +3.2% | +7.4% |
| 2022-10-27 beat | 1.71 | 1.85 | +8.3% | +1.5% | +1.4% | -1.0% | +8.7% |
| 2022-07-28 beat | 1.71 | 1.87 | +9.6% | -0.2% | -1.4% | -3.5% | -0.8% |
| 2022-04-28 beat | 1.83 | 2.14 | +17.1% | +1.6% | +4.9% | -0.6% | +5.1% |
| 2022-02-03 beat | 1.52 | 1.80 | +18.1% | -0.4% | -3.7% | -3.1% | -1.6% |
| 2021-10-28 beat | 1.55 | 1.75 | +12.6% | +2.3% | +6.1% | +4.6% | -13.5% |
| 2021-07-29 miss | 1.35 | 1.31 | -2.9% | -1.0% | -1.8% | -1.7% | -0.8% |
| 2021-04-29 miss | 1.61 | 1.40 | -13.2% | -2.1% | -4.4% | +5.6% | +3.0% |
| 2021-02-04 miss | 1.39 | 1.32 | -4.9% | -0.5% | -1.7% | -1.7% | -2.4% |
| 2020-10-27 beat | 1.43 | 1.74 | +21.3% | +0.1% | -1.1% | -1.4% | +2.7% |
| 2020-07-31 beat | 1.09 | 1.37 | +25.8% | +2.4% | +1.6% | +1.0% | +6.3% |
| 2020-04-28 beat | 1.34 | 1.50 | +11.8% | -3.3% | -3.3% | -3.9% | -2.6% |
| 2020-02-05 beat | 1.15 | 1.16 | +1.1% | -4.2% | -2.9% | -3.0% | -4.2% |
| 2019-10-29 beat | 1.24 | 1.51 | +21.6% | +2.3% | +3.5% | -2.6% | +2.9% |
| 2019-07-30 beat | 1.16 | 1.30 | +12.2% | +1.8% | +0.9% | +1.3% | +3.9% |
| 2019-04-30 beat | 1.05 | 1.22 | +15.8% | +1.0% | +2.5% | -1.0% | +1.2% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.