MSI chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.9% | +0.8% | 5.2% | 62% |
| Day 2 | -0.2% | -0.1% | 1.9% | 48% |
| Day 3 | +0.4% | +0.6% | 1.4% | 70% |
| 5-day | +1.4% | +1.1% | 5.8% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 beat | 3.85 | 4.41 | +14.4% | +8.4% | +8.2% | -1.9% | -1.3% |
| 2026-05-07 beat | 3.25 | 3.37 | +3.8% | -3.7% | -11.4% | +2.4% | +7.8% |
| 2026-02-11 beat | 4.35 | 4.59 | +5.4% | +6.8% | +7.7% | +2.1% | +3.8% |
| 2025-10-30 beat | 3.85 | 4.06 | +5.5% | -2.9% | -5.8% | -3.9% | -7.2% |
| 2025-08-07 beat | 3.36 | 3.57 | +6.2% | +1.5% | +1.9% | +1.5% | +5.4% |
| 2025-05-01 beat | 3.01 | 3.18 | +5.7% | -5.0% | -7.5% | +0.0% | +3.9% |
| 2025-02-13 beat | 3.89 | 4.04 | +3.9% | +1.1% | -6.0% | -4.0% | -3.7% |
| 2024-11-07 beat | 3.38 | 3.74 | +10.6% | +3.4% | +7.4% | -3.1% | -5.5% |
| 2024-08-01 beat | 3.01 | 3.24 | +7.6% | +0.2% | +2.9% | +0.1% | +7.3% |
| 2024-05-02 beat | 2.53 | 2.81 | +11.0% | +4.7% | +5.2% | +2.6% | +4.4% |
| 2024-02-08 beat | 3.63 | 3.90 | +7.3% | -1.4% | +0.8% | -3.1% | +2.9% |
| 2023-11-02 beat | 3.03 | 3.19 | +5.5% | +4.6% | +6.5% | +3.9% | +8.4% |
| 2023-08-03 beat | 2.52 | 2.65 | +5.3% | +1.9% | -3.1% | +2.5% | +0.8% |
| 2023-05-04 beat | 2.05 | 2.22 | +8.1% | -1.8% | -3.0% | +4.0% | -1.2% |
| 2023-02-09 beat | 3.43 | 3.60 | +4.8% | +2.9% | +5.6% | -0.8% | -1.9% |
| 2022-11-03 beat | 2.88 | 3.00 | +4.1% | +5.8% | +7.0% | -2.1% | +4.4% |
| 2022-08-04 beat | 1.87 | 2.07 | +10.6% | +1.4% | +4.4% | +2.3% | -2.7% |
| 2022-05-12 beat | 1.58 | 1.70 | +7.6% | +2.7% | +6.8% | -2.3% | -5.6% |
| 2022-02-09 beat | 2.74 | 2.85 | +3.9% | -3.7% | -7.0% | -2.7% | -1.4% |
| 2021-11-04 beat | 2.14 | 2.35 | +10.1% | +0.3% | -1.6% | +1.6% | +3.0% |
| 2021-08-05 beat | 1.92 | 2.07 | +7.6% | +1.3% | +2.8% | +2.0% | +7.2% |
| 2021-05-06 beat | 1.62 | 1.87 | +15.1% | +0.7% | +5.9% | +1.4% | +5.7% |
| 2021-02-04 beat | 2.74 | 2.86 | +4.3% | +0.1% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -2.8% |
| 2020-10-29 beat | 1.78 | 1.95 | +9.7% | -1.5% | -3.0% | +4.1% | +7.9% |
| 2020-08-06 beat | 1.22 | 1.39 | +14.0% | +2.6% | +0.2% | +0.8% | +5.7% |
| 2020-05-07 beat | 1.30 | 1.49 | +15.0% | -4.2% | -3.6% | -1.7% | +15.6% |
| 2020-02-06 beat | 2.80 | 2.94 | +5.0% | +0.7% | +0.3% | +2.8% | -4.9% |
| 2019-10-30 beat | 1.96 | 2.04 | +4.0% | +0.4% | +0.6% | -2.5% | -0.8% |
| 2019-08-01 beat | 1.60 | 1.69 | +5.4% | -0.8% | +3.2% | +3.7% | +5.0% |
| 2019-05-02 beat | 1.15 | 1.28 | +11.3% | +0.6% | +0.9% | +3.3% | +9.3% |
| 2019-02-07 beat | 2.52 | 2.63 | +4.5% | +9.5% | +14.1% | +2.4% | +3.6% |
| 2018-11-01 beat | 1.72 | 1.94 | +13.1% | +0.9% | +4.1% | +0.6% | +1.0% |
| 2018-08-02 beat | 1.37 | 1.46 | +6.2% | -4.3% | -3.2% | +2.8% | +8.9% |
| 2018-05-03 beat | 0.87 | 1.10 | +26.5% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.3% | +4.0% |
| 2018-02-01 beat | 2.04 | 2.10 | +3.0% | +1.7% | +4.8% | -4.6% | +4.3% |
| 2017-11-02 beat | 1.40 | 1.53 | +9.1% | +1.7% | +4.7% | -3.4% | -3.8% |
| 2017-08-03 beat | 1.04 | 1.12 | +8.2% | +1.3% | +0.0% | -3.2% | -4.1% |
| 2017-05-04 beat | 0.57 | 0.71 | +23.5% | +1.5% | -1.9% | -0.3% | +3.6% |
| 2017-02-02 beat | 1.85 | 2.03 | +9.6% | +2.4% | +0.7% | -4.0% | -2.4% |
| 2016-11-03 beat | 1.20 | 1.37 | +13.7% | +1.8% | +6.5% | +5.9% | +8.3% |
| 2016-08-04 beat | 0.87 | 1.03 | +18.9% | +0.2% | +4.6% | +1.4% | +6.6% |
| 2016-05-05 beat | 0.41 | 0.52 | +27.4% | -3.2% | -5.0% | +0.1% | -3.4% |
| 2016-02-22 beat | 1.46 | 1.59 | +8.5% | +4.9% | +6.0% | +0.6% | +3.3% |
| 2015-11-04 beat | 0.73 | 0.82 | +12.2% | -4.6% | -8.6% | +7.3% | +10.5% |
| 2015-08-05 beat | 0.54 | 0.68 | +26.6% | +5.3% | +6.3% | +0.9% | +1.7% |
| 2015-05-06 beat | 0.25 | 0.38 | +49.8% | +3.0% | +0.3% | +0.9% | -0.2% |
| 2015-02-04 beat | 1.14 | 1.25 | +9.5% | +0.2% | -0.1% | +7.2% | +4.5% |
| 2014-11-04 beat | 0.41 | 0.62 | +50.3% | +0.0% | +3.2% | -4.8% | -2.3% |
| 2014-08-05 miss | 0.63 | 0.47 | -25.4% | -4.0% | -4.2% | +0.4% | -3.9% |
| 2014-05-01 miss | 0.50 | 0.50 | -0.0% | -5.3% | -1.5% | +7.5% | +7.6% |
| 2014-01-22 beat | 1.62 | 1.67 | +3.0% | -4.9% | -3.9% | -0.8% | +0.8% |
| 2013-10-23 beat | 1.02 | 1.32 | +29.5% | +2.1% | +3.3% | -0.2% | +4.8% |
| 2013-07-24 beat | 1.04 | 1.12 | +7.4% | -6.0% | -6.6% | -2.2% | +0.5% |
| 2013-04-24 miss | 0.67 | 0.66 | -1.4% | -11.4% | -9.3% | +0.6% | +2.6% |
| 2013-01-23 beat | 1.02 | 1.10 | +7.9% | -0.3% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +5.7% |
| 2012-10-24 beat | 0.73 | 0.84 | +14.7% | +1.5% | +3.6% | +2.6% | +4.7% |
| 2012-07-25 beat | 0.69 | 0.70 | +0.7% | +0.5% | +5.6% | +0.3% | -0.5% |
| 2012-04-25 beat | 0.54 | 0.59 | +10.2% | +1.4% | +5.5% | +0.0% | -7.0% |
| 2012-01-25 beat | 0.81 | 0.87 | +7.2% | +0.0% | -6.1% | +3.5% | +10.0% |
| 2011-10-27 beat | 0.60 | 0.65 | +9.1% | +3.2% | +1.6% | +0.1% | -2.8% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-14); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.