NAT chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.2% | -1.6% | 5.3% | 43% |
| Day 2 | +2.6% | +1.8% | 5.5% | 70% |
| Day 3 | -0.0% | +0.3% | 4.3% | 50% |
| 5-day | +1.8% | +0.7% | 9.7% | 57% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 miss | 0.23 | 0.22 | -3.4% | +2.1% | +0.1% | +7.1% | — |
| 2026-05-27 miss | 0.19 | 0.15 | -20.8% | +3.3% | -3.4% | +4.4% | +14.7% |
| 2026-02-26 miss | 0.14 | 0.06 | -55.6% | -3.8% | +7.1% | +3.3% | +4.8% |
| 2025-11-27 miss | 0.03 | -0.01 | -137.5% | +0.3% | +0.3% | -2.2% | -5.8% |
| 2025-08-28 miss | 0.05 | -0.04 | -175.2% | -1.0% | -1.6% | +8.6% | +2.3% |
| 2025-05-28 miss | -0.01 | -0.02 | -271.8% | +0.4% | -3.4% | +7.8% | +2.7% |
| 2025-02-27 miss | 0.04 | 0.01 | -72.7% | +0.4% | -0.4% | +2.9% | +0.4% |
| 2024-11-29 miss | 0.06 | 0.04 | -33.3% | +0.7% | -6.9% | +0.0% | -6.7% |
| 2024-08-29 beat | 0.08 | 0.10 | +21.2% | +2.5% | +1.4% | -1.4% | +0.5% |
| 2024-05-29 miss | 0.11 | 0.07 | -36.4% | +1.8% | +7.3% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 2024-02-28 miss | 0.13 | 0.08 | -37.2% | -0.7% | -1.7% | +0.2% | -1.2% |
| 2023-11-28 miss | 0.05 | 0.04 | -23.8% | +0.5% | -8.4% | -0.3% | +7.1% |
| 2023-08-27 miss | 0.14 | 0.13 | -9.3% | +1.5% | +3.8% | -7.3% | -1.7% |
| 2023-05-21 beat | 0.20 | 0.22 | +10.0% | +1.0% | -4.5% | -8.4% | -3.9% |
| 2023-02-27 miss | 0.20 | 0.15 | -28.4% | +4.5% | +4.2% | -0.5% | -10.4% |
| 2022-12-02 beat | 0.04 | 0.05 | +25.0% | -1.9% | -2.4% | -5.2% | -20.2% |
| 2022-08-30 beat | -0.03 | -0.02 | +40.0% | -4.8% | -10.7% | +23.7% | +10.8% |
| 2022-05-31 miss | -0.11 | -0.14 | -31.6% | +0.9% | -10.9% | +12.7% | +3.9% |
| 2022-02-25 | -0.12 | -0.12 | — | +2.3% | +12.3% | +18.2% | -6.2% |
| 2021-11-24 miss | -0.17 | -0.22 | -26.9% | -2.1% | +0.5% | -2.6% | -8.9% |
| 2021-08-30 miss | -0.17 | -0.18 | -8.0% | +0.9% | -3.0% | +9.3% | +11.9% |
| 2021-05-25 beat | -0.18 | -0.16 | +10.1% | +0.6% | +0.8% | +0.8% | -4.2% |
| 2021-02-26 miss | -0.16 | -0.19 | -21.8% | -1.2% | -7.2% | +8.4% | +14.8% |
| 2020-11-16 miss | -0.04 | -0.07 | -59.1% | -0.3% | +2.5% | +3.4% | +1.8% |
| 2020-08-17 beat | 0.28 | 0.33 | +18.9% | +2.9% | -1.8% | -1.6% | -11.5% |
| 2020-05-17 beat | 0.26 | 0.27 | +3.9% | +0.6% | -6.8% | +5.5% | -0.4% |
| 2020-02-18 miss | 0.20 | 0.09 | -55.9% | +0.0% | -5.2% | -13.1% | -20.5% |
| 2019-11-24 miss | -0.08 | -0.10 | -25.0% | -0.5% | -3.0% | -3.6% | +33.9% |
| 2019-08-16 beat | -0.13 | -0.11 | +17.5% | +1.1% | +0.6% | +3.4% | +14.8% |
| 2019-05-13 beat | -0.01 | 0.04 | +500.0% | +1.9% | +4.3% | +18.6% | +4.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.