NMM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.9% | -0.4% | 5.9% | 40% |
| Day 2 | +0.6% | +0.1% | 2.3% | 50% |
| Day 3 | -0.1% | +0.1% | 2.3% | 50% |
| 5-day | +0.5% | -0.6% | 8.6% | 45% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 beat | 4.32 | 4.65 | +7.6% | +3.5% | +2.1% | +3.6% | — |
| 2026-05-21 beat | 2.78 | 3.35 | +20.7% | +3.0% | -0.8% | -7.2% | -2.9% |
| 2026-02-19 beat | 2.13 | 3.40 | +60.0% | +2.3% | +3.2% | +3.8% | -3.0% |
| 2025-11-18 beat | 2.55 | 2.83 | +11.0% | +0.0% | -0.7% | +0.0% | -5.5% |
| 2025-08-21 beat | 1.77 | 2.15 | +21.5% | +5.8% | +4.4% | +0.6% | +1.3% |
| 2025-05-07 beat | 1.42 | 1.58 | +11.7% | +0.8% | +1.2% | +12.1% | +9.0% |
| 2025-02-13 beat | 2.50 | 2.61 | +4.4% | +0.1% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -7.2% |
| 2024-11-05 miss | 3.67 | 3.15 | -14.1% | -2.2% | +0.2% | -9.4% | -9.1% |
| 2024-08-20 beat | 2.84 | 3.06 | +7.9% | +8.4% | +16.0% | -3.6% | +4.4% |
| 2024-05-14 beat | 2.01 | 2.32 | +15.4% | -2.4% | -6.6% | +9.3% | +8.7% |
| 2024-02-13 beat | 2.62 | 4.32 | +64.7% | +0.2% | -1.2% | +11.2% | +40.7% |
| 2023-11-02 miss | 2.81 | 2.68 | -4.5% | +1.4% | +0.0% | -3.4% | +15.6% |
| 2023-08-23 beat | 2.88 | 3.65 | +26.6% | +1.8% | +2.3% | -2.7% | -2.6% |
| 2023-05-23 beat | 1.71 | 2.13 | +24.6% | -3.3% | -1.2% | -13.5% | -5.9% |
| 2023-03-24 miss | 4.25 | 3.66 | -13.9% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -2.1% | -4.3% |
| 2022-11-10 miss | 4.16 | 3.68 | -11.6% | +0.3% | -1.9% | -2.0% | -6.4% |
| 2022-07-28 miss | 3.98 | 3.83 | -3.7% | +9.3% | +15.6% | -2.4% | -6.9% |
| 2022-05-10 miss | 3.49 | 2.78 | -20.3% | -0.6% | -5.0% | +2.1% | -0.1% |
| 2022-02-17 miss | 4.26 | 4.03 | -5.3% | +0.7% | -1.9% | +8.1% | +8.8% |
| 2021-11-10 beat | 4.14 | 4.77 | +15.1% | +0.1% | -7.5% | -10.3% | -5.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.