NMM chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -1.0% | -0.4% | 7.3% | 45% |
| Day 2 | +1.1% | +0.4% | 3.4% | 58% |
| Day 3 | +0.1% | +0.0% | 3.7% | 48% |
| 5-day | -1.8% | -0.6% | 12.1% | 45% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 beat | 4.32 | 4.65 | +7.6% | +3.5% | +2.1% | +3.6% | — |
| 2026-05-21 beat | 2.78 | 3.35 | +20.7% | +3.0% | -0.8% | -7.2% | -2.9% |
| 2026-02-19 beat | 2.13 | 3.40 | +60.0% | +2.3% | +3.2% | +3.8% | -3.0% |
| 2025-11-18 beat | 2.55 | 2.83 | +11.0% | +0.0% | -0.7% | +0.0% | -5.5% |
| 2025-08-21 beat | 1.77 | 2.15 | +21.5% | +5.8% | +4.4% | +0.6% | +1.3% |
| 2025-05-07 beat | 1.42 | 1.58 | +11.7% | +0.8% | +1.2% | +12.1% | +9.0% |
| 2025-02-13 beat | 2.50 | 2.61 | +4.4% | +0.1% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -7.2% |
| 2024-11-05 miss | 3.67 | 3.15 | -14.1% | -2.2% | +0.2% | -9.4% | -9.1% |
| 2024-08-20 beat | 2.84 | 3.06 | +7.9% | +8.4% | +16.0% | -3.6% | +4.4% |
| 2024-05-14 beat | 2.01 | 2.32 | +15.4% | -2.4% | -6.6% | +9.3% | +8.7% |
| 2024-02-13 beat | 2.62 | 4.32 | +64.7% | +0.2% | -1.2% | +11.2% | +40.7% |
| 2023-11-02 miss | 2.81 | 2.68 | -4.5% | +1.4% | +0.0% | -3.4% | +15.6% |
| 2023-08-23 beat | 2.88 | 3.65 | +26.6% | +1.8% | +2.3% | -2.7% | -2.6% |
| 2023-05-23 beat | 1.71 | 2.13 | +24.6% | -3.3% | -1.2% | -13.5% | -5.9% |
| 2023-03-24 miss | 4.25 | 3.66 | -13.9% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -2.1% | -4.3% |
| 2022-11-10 miss | 4.16 | 3.68 | -11.6% | +0.3% | -1.9% | -2.0% | -6.4% |
| 2022-07-28 miss | 3.98 | 3.83 | -3.7% | +9.3% | +15.6% | -2.4% | -6.9% |
| 2022-05-10 miss | 3.49 | 2.78 | -20.3% | -0.6% | -5.0% | +2.1% | -0.1% |
| 2022-02-17 miss | 4.26 | 4.03 | -5.3% | +0.7% | -1.9% | +8.1% | +8.8% |
| 2021-11-10 beat | 4.14 | 4.77 | +15.1% | +0.1% | -7.5% | -10.3% | -5.4% |
| 2021-07-27 beat | 2.94 | 4.31 | +46.5% | +0.2% | -8.3% | +3.2% | +19.3% |
| 2021-04-29 miss | 1.73 | 1.01 | -41.6% | -0.6% | -2.7% | +1.7% | -17.9% |
| 2021-03-24 beat | 1.00 | 1.12 | +11.9% | +5.3% | -4.1% | -0.7% | +34.0% |
| 2020-11-05 beat | 0.58 | 0.78 | +34.5% | +2.1% | +4.7% | +2.3% | +35.3% |
| 2020-07-29 miss | -0.46 | -0.71 | -53.2% | -17.3% | -17.8% | -9.2% | -7.9% |
| 2020-05-13 miss | -0.18 | -0.35 | -94.4% | -8.4% | -12.0% | +3.5% | +20.0% |
| 2020-02-10 beat | 1.10 | 1.11 | +0.5% | -6.4% | -8.9% | -2.5% | -33.8% |
| 2019-10-31 beat | 1.06 | 1.67 | +58.0% | +1.6% | -1.3% | -4.7% | -9.9% |
| 2019-07-31 miss | -0.06 | -0.13 | -102.2% | -2.5% | -2.4% | -8.8% | +1.5% |
| 2019-05-03 beat | -0.33 | -0.15 | +54.5% | +3.1% | +2.1% | -6.1% | -18.7% |
| 2019-01-31 miss | 0.92 | 0.45 | -51.1% | +0.0% | -2.0% | +0.0% | -1.0% |
| 2018-11-13 beat | 0.64 | 1.35 | +110.7% | +5.0% | -7.2% | -9.3% | -11.6% |
| 2018-08-01 beat | 0.57 | 0.78 | +37.7% | +0.5% | +1.5% | -1.5% | -2.9% |
| 2018-05-08 beat | 0.29 | 0.45 | +57.1% | +1.0% | -1.6% | +1.1% | -3.7% |
| 2018-02-05 beat | 0.60 | 1.05 | +74.7% | -1.4% | +0.5% | +1.4% | -1.0% |
| 2017-11-14 beat | 0.23 | 0.60 | +156.4% | +0.5% | -6.1% | -1.5% | +12.5% |
| 2017-07-27 beat | 0.16 | 0.45 | +185.6% | +2.4% | +4.2% | +6.3% | +18.9% |
| 2017-05-22 beat | -0.40 | 0.04 | +110.2% | +1.7% | -2.8% | -4.6% | -10.3% |
| 2017-02-14 beat | 0.35 | 1.35 | +282.4% | +14.7% | +15.3% | -4.9% | +10.3% |
| 2016-11-14 beat | 0.23 | 1.05 | +348.8% | +2.8% | +9.2% | +26.6% | -7.1% |
| 2016-08-11 miss | 0.68 | 0.07 | -89.8% | -0.7% | +3.3% | +5.8% | -5.8% |
| 2016-05-12 miss | 1.18 | — | -100.0% | -4.9% | -8.3% | +1.5% | -3.0% |
| 2016-02-03 miss | 2.29 | 1.35 | -40.9% | -37.3% | -28.6% | -34.2% | -11.0% |
| 2015-11-03 miss | 2.24 | 1.95 | -12.9% | -19.5% | -18.9% | -13.6% | -43.0% |
| 2015-07-30 miss | 2.56 | 1.95 | -23.9% | +0.8% | -0.1% | -5.2% | -21.7% |
| 2015-05-04 miss | 2.74 | 1.95 | -28.8% | -1.8% | -4.9% | -10.1% | -12.1% |
| 2015-02-02 miss | 2.65 | 2.40 | -9.6% | +4.2% | +11.1% | -7.0% | -0.4% |
| 2014-10-27 miss | 2.58 | 2.40 | -7.0% | +1.0% | -3.0% | +4.0% | -14.4% |
| 2014-07-29 beat | 1.68 | 2.24 | +33.0% | +1.0% | +1.8% | +1.1% | +4.0% |
| 2014-04-29 miss | 2.41 | 2.07 | -14.0% | +0.8% | +0.3% | -0.1% | -2.4% |
| 2014-01-29 miss | 2.23 | 1.95 | -12.6% | -1.2% | -1.9% | -0.3% | -7.3% |
| 2013-10-31 beat | 2.08 | 2.85 | +37.0% | +3.1% | +3.6% | +2.2% | +6.2% |
| 2013-07-29 beat | 3.19 | 4.35 | +36.4% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -2.3% | -5.9% |
| 2013-04-25 beat | 3.57 | 3.60 | +0.7% | +0.9% | +0.8% | +1.5% | -1.1% |
| 2013-01-24 beat | 4.06 | 4.35 | +7.3% | +2.4% | +0.9% | +0.3% | -10.3% |
| 2012-10-23 beat | 4.34 | 5.40 | +24.5% | +1.6% | +0.2% | +2.1% | -13.1% |
| 2012-07-26 miss | 4.42 | 4.35 | -1.5% | +1.7% | +2.6% | +5.6% | -1.3% |
| 2012-04-26 miss | 4.68 | 4.50 | -3.9% | +0.8% | +1.0% | -0.8% | -12.1% |
| 2012-01-26 beat | 5.09 | 5.25 | +3.1% | +0.7% | +0.9% | +2.0% | +0.6% |
| 2011-10-24 beat | 4.95 | 5.25 | +6.1% | +2.8% | +0.7% | +1.4% | -13.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.