NSC chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +0.3% | -0.6% | 3.9% | 45% |
| Day 2 | +0.6% | +0.5% | 0.9% | 75% |
| Day 3 | -0.3% | -0.4% | 1.4% | 30% |
| 5-day | +0.9% | +0.6% | 3.9% | 60% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 beat | 3.32 | 3.52 | +5.9% | +3.6% | +5.3% | -4.2% | +0.6% |
| 2026-04-24 beat | 2.49 | 2.65 | +6.3% | +0.6% | -0.5% | -1.2% | +0.2% |
| 2026-01-29 beat | 2.76 | 3.22 | +16.5% | -0.2% | +2.0% | +5.8% | +9.4% |
| 2025-10-23 beat | 3.20 | 3.30 | +3.0% | -0.1% | -1.2% | +1.0% | +0.9% |
| 2025-07-29 miss | 3.31 | 3.29 | -0.5% | -3.8% | -3.0% | +0.8% | -1.9% |
| 2025-04-23 beat | 2.68 | 2.69 | +0.5% | +2.3% | +0.9% | +0.9% | +8.0% |
| 2025-01-29 beat | 2.94 | 3.04 | +3.3% | +4.9% | +1.8% | -1.6% | -4.3% |
| 2024-10-22 beat | 3.11 | 3.25 | +4.5% | +3.8% | +4.9% | -3.1% | -0.6% |
| 2024-07-25 beat | 2.86 | 3.06 | +7.0% | +8.6% | +10.9% | -1.5% | -2.0% |
| 2024-04-24 beat | 2.53 | 3.29 | +29.8% | -2.1% | -3.6% | -2.4% | -4.2% |
| 2024-01-26 miss | 2.87 | 2.83 | -1.4% | -2.1% | -1.5% | +7.2% | +7.8% |
| 2023-10-25 miss | 2.70 | 2.65 | -1.7% | -5.2% | -5.3% | +2.4% | +16.2% |
| 2023-07-27 miss | 3.11 | 2.95 | -5.2% | +0.0% | -0.7% | -3.4% | -10.5% |
| 2023-04-26 beat | 3.15 | 3.32 | +5.5% | -1.0% | -2.9% | +1.0% | +5.1% |
| 2023-01-25 miss | 3.44 | 3.42 | -0.7% | -1.8% | -5.0% | +2.4% | -7.5% |
| 2022-10-26 beat | 3.60 | 3.75 | +4.2% | +2.2% | +2.9% | +1.5% | +13.6% |
| 2022-07-27 miss | 3.47 | 3.45 | -0.5% | -1.3% | -0.6% | +2.9% | +8.1% |
| 2022-04-27 beat | 2.92 | 2.93 | +0.4% | +0.1% | +3.1% | +0.8% | -9.8% |
| 2022-01-26 beat | 3.04 | 3.12 | +2.6% | +1.5% | -2.1% | +4.1% | -3.2% |
| 2021-10-27 beat | 2.92 | 3.06 | +5.0% | +1.2% | +0.1% | +0.2% | -6.1% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
Earnings dates & estimates from Yahoo Finance (refreshed 2026-09-13); price reactions from end-of-day data. History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.