ONEW chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | -2.2% | -2.5% | 10.2% | 40% |
| Day 2 | -1.1% | -1.2% | 3.6% | 40% |
| Day 3 | -0.5% | +0.2% | 3.8% | 50% |
| 5-day | -2.7% | -0.6% | 15.5% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
Each report's EPS vs. the same ticker's report ~1 year earlier. Skips any comparison where the prior-year EPS was zero or negative -- a swing from a loss to a profit is real, but "growth %" on a negative base isn't a meaningful number.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 miss | 0.78 | 0.73 | -6.6% | +0.0% | -2.4% | -3.7% | -3.5% |
| 2026-04-30 miss | 0.07 | -0.34 | -585.7% | -6.6% | -7.1% | +27.2% | +18.0% |
| 2026-01-29 beat | -0.57 | -0.04 | +93.0% | +5.8% | -2.5% | +3.4% | -14.0% |
| 2025-11-13 miss | 0.21 | — | -100.0% | -9.5% | -10.5% | -23.3% | -20.9% |
| 2025-07-31 miss | 1.06 | 0.79 | -25.3% | +1.2% | +5.4% | +2.5% | +9.7% |
| 2025-05-01 miss | 0.34 | 0.13 | -61.2% | -20.7% | -8.5% | -8.4% | +1.0% |
| 2025-01-30 beat | -0.84 | -0.54 | +36.0% | +17.3% | +13.7% | +7.6% | -6.4% |
| 2024-11-14 miss | 0.15 | -0.36 | -340.0% | -15.2% | -10.4% | -5.7% | -2.3% |
| 2024-07-30 miss | 2.17 | 1.05 | -51.6% | -17.9% | -15.5% | -14.9% | -6.4% |
| 2024-05-02 miss | 0.68 | 0.67 | -2.0% | +5.9% | +14.1% | +6.0% | +31.8% |
| 2024-02-01 miss | -0.22 | -0.38 | -70.2% | +2.8% | +4.1% | -0.2% | -2.5% |
| 2023-11-16 miss | 0.43 | 0.42 | -2.9% | +1.5% | -3.9% | +5.8% | +25.6% |
| 2023-08-03 miss | 3.22 | 1.97 | -38.8% | -27.4% | -28.8% | +3.4% | +0.8% |
| 2023-05-04 beat | 1.57 | 1.66 | +6.1% | +16.2% | +8.5% | +3.9% | +9.7% |
| 2023-02-02 miss | 1.74 | 0.61 | -65.2% | -10.9% | -8.9% | -4.5% | -10.0% |
| 2022-11-15 miss | 1.53 | 1.40 | -9.0% | +4.6% | -3.5% | -1.8% | -2.9% |
| 2022-08-05 beat | 3.40 | 4.10 | +20.4% | +0.5% | -0.1% | +2.6% | -2.3% |
| 2022-05-05 beat | 2.15 | 2.70 | +25.6% | +7.4% | +4.7% | -7.0% | -4.3% |
| 2022-02-03 beat | 1.02 | 1.98 | +94.5% | +3.2% | +0.5% | -2.1% | -9.3% |
| 2021-11-18 beat | 1.16 | 1.56 | +34.3% | +8.5% | +6.3% | -5.3% | -7.6% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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