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ORGO chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +4.8% | +0.4% | 26.4% | 50% |
| Day 2 | -0.6% | -0.4% | 5.9% | 43% |
| Day 3 | +1.0% | +0.1% | 8.3% | 50% |
| 5-day | +3.2% | -1.0% | 24.9% | 47% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
Each report's EPS vs. the same ticker's report ~1 year earlier. Skips any comparison where the prior-year EPS was zero or negative -- a swing from a loss to a profit is real, but "growth %" on a negative base isn't a meaningful number.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 miss | -0.35 | -0.69 | -97.7% | -27.4% | -22.8% | -3.8% | -14.0% |
| 2026-05-07 miss | -0.29 | -0.34 | -18.0% | -19.4% | -6.3% | +1.7% | +4.6% |
| 2026-02-26 beat | 0.21 | 0.40 | +90.5% | +0.8% | -13.2% | -13.1% | -28.7% |
| 2025-11-06 beat | 0.07 | 0.18 | +153.6% | +31.4% | +44.7% | +8.3% | -17.4% |
| 2025-08-07 miss | -0.01 | -0.06 | -491.0% | -10.2% | +0.8% | +3.8% | +7.4% |
| 2025-05-08 miss | -0.03 | -0.11 | -254.7% | -14.8% | -42.7% | +0.7% | +13.4% |
| 2025-02-27 beat | 0.02 | 0.07 | +231.2% | +32.2% | +102.3% | -17.0% | -30.4% |
| 2024-11-12 beat | 0.02 | 0.10 | +383.0% | +11.6% | +28.4% | -10.4% | -23.3% |
| 2024-08-08 miss | 0.02 | — | -90.0% | +6.9% | -2.7% | +0.4% | +0.4% |
| 2024-05-09 beat | -0.03 | -0.01 | +63.7% | +10.1% | +32.9% | -9.6% | -10.9% |
| 2024-02-29 miss | 0.02 | 0.01 | -27.0% | -13.4% | -18.2% | +6.5% | -10.6% |
| 2023-11-09 beat | 0.01 | 0.04 | +298.0% | +18.8% | +11.2% | +21.0% | +49.3% |
| 2023-08-09 beat | 0.04 | 0.05 | +15.0% | -29.8% | -18.9% | -6.2% | -5.1% |
| 2023-05-10 | — | -0.01 | — | +11.9% | +37.1% | +7.3% | +42.7% |
| 2023-03-01 beat | 0.05 | 0.07 | +36.0% | -1.3% | +19.3% | -15.1% | -21.7% |
| 2022-11-09 miss | 0.07 | 0.04 | -40.8% | -16.5% | -14.9% | -1.1% | -0.4% |
| 2022-08-09 miss | 0.08 | 0.07 | -12.5% | -13.6% | -20.0% | -7.7% | -23.1% |
| 2022-05-10 miss | 0.06 | — | -100.0% | -0.5% | +6.3% | -7.1% | -14.1% |
| 2022-03-01 beat | 0.10 | 0.40 | +326.1% | +12.4% | +21.4% | -2.5% | -13.3% |
| 2021-11-09 beat | 0.06 | 0.12 | +86.2% | -6.3% | -3.4% | -4.3% | -12.3% |
| 2021-08-09 beat | 0.06 | 0.14 | +145.4% | +13.3% | +1.2% | -8.6% | +9.5% |
| 2021-05-10 beat | -0.02 | 0.08 | +544.6% | -9.6% | -7.1% | -7.0% | -16.7% |
| 2021-03-16 beat | 0.12 | 0.16 | +27.8% | +1.1% | +4.6% | +9.4% | +20.2% |
| 2020-11-09 beat | -0.07 | 0.19 | +371.4% | +7.0% | +4.6% | -0.2% | +12.0% |
| 2020-08-10 beat | -0.26 | -0.05 | +80.8% | +6.5% | +5.2% | +8.9% | +1.0% |
| 2020-05-11 miss | -0.13 | -0.16 | -20.0% | +0.5% | -8.7% | -7.2% | +6.1% |
| 2020-03-09 beat | -0.09 | -0.04 | +56.8% | +17.8% | -4.9% | +22.4% | +9.5% |
| 2019-11-12 beat | -0.12 | -0.12 | +4.0% | -0.3% | +7.8% | -10.6% | -39.6% |
| 2019-08-09 beat | -0.13 | -0.11 | +15.4% | +5.4% | +0.0% | +8.0% | +22.0% |
| 2019-05-10 miss | -0.11 | -0.15 | -42.8% | +1.0% | -0.1% | -0.6% | +4.3% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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