SEE chart · All upcoming earnings
| Move | Mean | Median | Std dev | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | +3.1% | +4.2% | 4.4% | 75% |
| Day 2 | -1.0% | -0.8% | 3.1% | 38% |
| Day 3 | +0.8% | +1.1% | 2.0% | 75% |
| 5-day | +3.9% | +0.4% | 9.1% | 50% |
Day 1 = the close-to-close move on the first session to trade the news — hover for the EPS surprise.
Each report's EPS vs. the same ticker's report ~1 year earlier. Skips any comparison where the prior-year EPS was zero or negative -- a swing from a loss to a profit is real, but "growth %" on a negative base isn't a meaningful number.
| Report | Est | Actual | Surprise | Gap | 1-day | +5d | +1mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 0.81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-02 beat | 0.73 | 0.77 | +5.4% | — | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 beat | 0.70 | 0.87 | +24.7% | +6.5% | +5.3% | +4.4% | +18.2% |
| 2025-08-05 beat | 0.72 | 0.89 | +23.8% | +3.6% | +3.4% | -0.3% | +7.8% |
| 2025-05-06 beat | 0.67 | 0.81 | +20.9% | +5.5% | +5.1% | +10.3% | +9.9% |
| 2025-02-25 beat | 0.67 | 0.75 | +11.2% | +9.4% | +5.8% | -8.7% | -13.0% |
| 2024-11-07 beat | 0.67 | 0.79 | +18.5% | +4.0% | -4.1% | +0.2% | +4.7% |
| 2024-08-08 beat | 0.64 | 0.83 | +30.3% | +7.9% | +3.4% | -8.3% | -6.3% |
| 2024-05-02 beat | 0.53 | 0.78 | +47.7% | +9.0% | +8.8% | +7.3% | +13.3% |
| 2024-02-27 beat | 0.64 | 0.88 | +38.3% | +1.2% | -2.9% | +0.8% | +5.4% |
“1-day” is the close-to-close move over the session that first traded on the news (the next session for after-close reports). “+5d / +1mo” are the further drift from that close.
History, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
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